TOKYO MOTOR SHOW: EV tipping point eight years away

Two of Nissan’s most senior executives have each nominated 2025 as pivotal for electric vehicles. That’s the year described as a “tipping point” for EV affordability – when battery-powered cars and conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) cars converge in terms of purchase price.

Speaking separately at this week’s Tokyo Motor Show, Philippe Klein, Nissan’s Chief Planning Officer and Daniele Schillaci, the company’s Executive Vice President Zero Emission Vehicles and Global Sales and Marketing, each pronounced 2025 as the automotive world’s ‘e-day’.

And both emphasised the scales will be tipped as much by the increasing costs of emission requirements for internal combustion engine cars as the decreasing cost of EVs.

“We see this happening somewhere in the middle of the next decade -- plus or minus,” Klein told motoring.com.au.

“At the same time, that will depend on the cost imposed on the car industry for the new [emission] regulations – which is substantial. And at the same time the continuous decrease of the cost of the electric vehicle technology,” he explained.

“We are not saying that we will see [battery technology] everywhere – it’s not the best technology for a full-size truck towing a house [caravan] in the US -- but for a lot of vehicles it’s going to become an obvious technology,” he said.

Schillaci was specific with his opinion on timing, stating that it had been backed up by external consultants and other studies.

“We see this tipping point happening around 2025. Then for a customer to buy a petrol [engine car] over an EV will be probably the same cost and then… it [EV sales growth] will be really exponential,” he proffered.

“If you have the same price a petrol and an EV – with by then autonomy [autonomous driving functionality] will be even bigger… Why would you [prefer] traditional technology?” he asked.

Global boss, Carlos Ghosn, delivered the bones of the Renault Nissan Alliance’s mid-term business plan last month (September). Dubbed Alliance 2022, the six-year program includes new common platforms and cost reductions based on scale.

Schillaci says around 9m of the group’s projected 14m car production in 2022 will be on shared architecture.

Ghosn is expected to reveal more detailed electrification plans in early 2018.

In the meantime, the Nissan sales and marketing boss is pointing towards a two-pronged EV strategy with solutions tailored to different markets and vehicle segments around the globe.

Pure battery EVs like the all-new new LEAF and the IMx crossover EV concept car shown at the Tokyo motor show will spawn by 2022 and these vehicles will target some geographical markets and segments. In other markets (like Australia) and segments such as light commercials, off-roaders and even large SUVs, Nissan will likely leverage its new e-Power solution.

Combining a petrol generator with an EV powertrain, e-Power debuted in the Japanese market in 2016 in the Nissan Note, a small hatchback. Nissan is also set to launch an e-Power Serena people-mover. It is also testing the waters in markets such as India, Indonesia and Thailand.

The e-Power system uses an ICE to charge the vehicle’s batteries – there is no plug-in infrastructure on current Nissan e-Power vehicles.

Japanese sales have been strong, says Schillaci, who suggests the technology could suit markets like Australia where EV infrastructure and purchase incentives are lacking.

The e-Power vehicles deliver EV-style driving characteristics and short range pure electric mobility. There are also CO2 benefits as the ICE can be run at most efficient constant rpm. Mazda is one brand readying a similar solution – in its case using a small rotary engine.

Schillaci recently visited Australia to conduct a review of the market. He was reluctant to be specific on the company’s plans for the Nissan range Down Under but did hint e-Power was one avenue to explore.

“It’s very clear that crossover and SUV Nissan models are doing pretty well; the sedan we have segment coverage, that we are re-optimising… [But] We have huge request of the new LEAF and huge request for the new e-Power technology and they are products we are seeking for the Australian market,” he hedged.

>> <a href="/tokyo-motor-show/">Read more Tokyo motor show news<br> </a>>> Check out 2017 Tokyo motor show photos