Toyota bZ4X will be limited

Toyota’s first battery-electric vehicle is shaping up to be one of the most exclusive cars in the company’s sprawling product portfolio.

Toyota is forecasting it will only sell 1500 examples of the 2024 Toyota bZ4X in its first 12 months on sale, amounting to a very modest 125 sales per month.

That would make the long-awaited mid-size electric SUV one of the top-selling brand’s lowest volume models, only just outselling the Toyota GR 86 sports car and pricy Granvia people-mover.

“[We’ve ordered] 1500 year one with the ability to go up further if the market demands it,” Toyota Australia vice-president of sales, marketing and franchise operations, Sean Hanley, told carsales.

To put that figure in perspective, last year the bZ4X’s most direct rival and biggest competitor, the Tesla Model Y, found 28,769 Aussie homes to become the nation’s best-selling EVs.

If that rate were to continue into 2024, the Tesla would outsell the Toyota bZ4X’s annual supply in about 19 days.

The modest sales forecast is unlike Toyota, which typically tries to dominate or perform strongly across all the market segments it competes in.

But Hanley says Toyota will “stay on course” with its controversial EV strategy, arguing it took the brand more than two decades to “educate the market on hybrids”.

“We want to bring a car to market that’s suitable for our buyers, takes the risk out of the buyer equation and gives them a damn happy experience,” he said of the bZ4X, which is expected to come with a solid aftersales package to make buyers feel comfortable about switching to electric.

Plus, despite the similarities, the bZ4X is likely to be more expensive than the Model Y, which kicks off at $65,400 before on-road costs.

“You’ve got to look at our positioning… and where it will sit, spec and all those things,” said Hanley of the bZ4X.

Hanley also suggested that EVs aren’t for all mid-size SUV buyers, at least not now.

“BEVs are more suitable for city driving – [it’s a] fact of life,” he said.

That’s one reason Toyota is making fast-charging available across its 287-strong dealer network – something he says will “make it convenient for them to charge them”.

Hanley also pointed out that EVs only accounted for 7.2 per cent of Australia’s record overall new-vehicle market in 2023.

However, when you drill down to mid-size SUVs – a market segment that includes big players such as the Toyota RAV4, Nissan X-TRAIL, Mazda CX-5 and Tesla Model Y – 16 per cent of them (almost one in six) were powered solely by electrons.

And given 2024 will see Toyota, Subaru, Nissan, Polestar, Porsche, Audi and Volkswagen all enter the mid-size electric SUV segment and Kia arrive with what’s expected to be a competitively priced EV5, there’s a high probability that 16 per cent will continue to grow.

But as it stands, it appears Toyota won’t be playing a big role in that anticipated EV sales growth.

Following several delays, the 2024 Toyota bZ4X and its sister model – the 2024 Subaru Solterra – are both due for Australian release by the end of next month (February).