Toyota: Diesel has no future, PHEVS are the way forward

Toyota’s top brass says diesel has a limited future beyond 2035, but plug-in hybrids – and hydrogen fuel cells – have much brighter prospects.

The days of diesel engines are numbered, according to the top sales executive of Australia’s biggest car brand.

Speaking to media at a preview event for the 2026 Toyota LandCruiser Hybrid, Toyota Australia’s vice president of sales and marketing Sean Hanley cast doubt over the longevity of diesel.

“Eventually – not in the foreseeable future, but in the longer term – I can’t imagine diesel necessarily being a fuel source of the future,” says Hanley.

“Because the reality is, a petrol will do everything it can do… plus some.”

That's certainly the case with the inbound 300 Series LandCruiser hybrid due here next March, where it’s set to produce between 326kW and 340kW, and 790Nm of torque.

That’s a big step up on the 227kW/700Nm 3.3-litre turbo-diesel engine that currently powers the 300 Series.

“Diesel’s not going to go anytime in the next decade, but I think beyond that, hydrogen will take over diesel eventually. We’re setting up for that future.”

Hydrogen-powered vehicles continue to prove problematic, with adoption stymied by a lack of public hydrogen fuelling infrastructure, insufficient production of green hydrogen (hydrogen that isn’t a byproduct of the petroleum industry), and an almost total absence of production cars powered by the fuel.

According to Hanley, however, those problems should be solved in the next ten years and could provide an opportunity for the Australian industry to capitalise on the fuel.

“People are pooh-poohing hydrogen left, right and centre at the moment, because it’s like any new technology, these things take time: infrastructure, sourcing green hydrogen, et cetera,” he says.

“It’s kind of sad when you hear those stories, because in my mind there’s a great, great opportunity for this country to be a hydrogen leader, particularly in sourcing green hydrogen.”

Hanley says the brand is “very much invested” in hydrogen and has been for years.

“I don’t want people to think that hydrogen is suddenly going to be taking off between now and 2030, but particularly in that 2035 horizon, I truly believe hydrogen will be our future, and that’s where I think you might see a change of diesel technology at that point.”

Speaking of the benefits, the high-ranking exec says hydrogen is cleaner, offers decent driving range, the infrastructure is improving, and it’ll be both convenient and affordable.

While hydrogen will eventually supplant diesel, there’ll be a heavy reliance on plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) before then, with some support from electric vehicles (EVs).

“I think plug-in hybrids are going to be a tremendously big seller over the next five years, and with battery technology evolving it offers, I think, a broad scope of capability,” he says.

But PHEVs aren’t the answer for every vehicle category, according to Hanley.

In the case of large SUVs and off-roaders, packaging a PHEV powertrain in a way that didn’t impact on other components, add too much mass, or impinge on critical capabilities like towing, is a challenge.

Those vehicles will likely be conventional hybrids until batteries shrink, or a hydrogen solution presents itself.

Pure electric vehicles (EVs) won’t be forgotten either, though Hanley predicts the total EV share of the market likely won’t be as high as other manufacturers anticipate.

“We’re not talking about EV-only. Never have, never will. Do we think EVs will play a role? 100 percent, we do – of course we’d be naïve not to. But they’re not going to be 80 per cent of the market in three to five years, in my opinion. Maybe 30 [per cent], maybe a bit more, but that’s about where it’ll sit.”

And Hanley conceded that there may still be a role for pure-combustion petrol and diesels to play in 2035 and beyond, though it would largely be confined to specialty low-volume products like performance cars and dedicated off-roaders.

Hanley’s – and by extension Toyota Australia’s – world view is centred around the brand’s “Multi Pathway” decarbonisation strategy, which takes a more holistic view of powertrain technology versus other companies that have fixated on EV-or-bust product plans.

Will it be the right approach not only for Australian consumers, but for the wellbeing of the environment? We’ve got around ten years to find out whether Hanley’s predictions will come true.

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