Toyota: Diesel is dead

The diesel engine is under a death sentence Down Under.

That’s the view of Australia’s large SUV and light commercial vehicle sales leader Toyota, which argues the federal government’s forthcoming New Vehicle Efficiency Standard will accelerate its inevitable demise.

But Toyota is also confident there are alternatives in the wings to replace diesel, which is currently the foundation of huge sales for leading models such as the Toyota LandCruiser 300 Series and 70 Series, the smaller Prado and the HiLux ute.

“I think diesel in the fullness of time will be eliminated out of the Australian market, but it’s not immediate – it’s still got some time to go,” Toyota Australia sales, marketing and franchise operations chief Sean Hanley told carsales at the launch of the company’s first EV, the Toyota bZ4X (watch this space for our first full review on Friday).

“We have diesel because it’s relatively cheap and capable and we have infrastructure and we have ICE (internal combustion) engines that take it.

“But we are also now finding out that petrol-turbo four-cylinder engines aren’t bad either, so technology is moving on.”

Hanley was also enthusiastic about the potential for synthetic fuels, hydrogen and EVs to take up roles in Toyota’s future powertrain mix.

However, the first two are still in the experimental stage and Toyota is yet to formally release its first battery-electric car in Australia.

Hanley wasn’t specific about the timing of diesel’s demise in Australia. Toyota is still working through the implications of NVES, which proposes increasingly stringent CO2 limits on new vehicles in an attempt to increase the purchase of low-emissions vehicles and zero-emissions EVs.

Under the NVES, auto companies that beat the CO2 target get credits and those which don’t get fined. Toyota has already said it will pass on any fines to consumers in the form of price rises. The scheme is due to be in place from January 1, 2025.

Submissions from car-makers and interested parties in response to the NVES proposal must be made by today (March 4).

“We’re trying to work our way through what it [NVES] means,” said Hanley. “If you ask me model by model by model I can’t tell you right now what it means.

“You’ve got to look at your forward plan, have a look at the targets, the categorisation, don’t worry about the fines at this stage, just what it means for your brand if it’s implemented January 1, 2025.

“Then you start to look at the volumes and say ‘OK that’s going to do that, that’s going to do that, do I bring that, do I consolidate that?’

“You start to play with your product portfolio and you map out a plan. And that’s what we are doing now.”

However, there are already some indications the NVES is having an impact. The LC70 V8 is unlikely to go back on sale and Toyota Australia is now hinting a petrol-electric Prado 250 Series hybrid will be added here as soon as this year, while globally the development of a light-duty electric LandCruiser wagon is underway and could be on sale as soon as 2026.

More local model lines are likely to become petrol-electric hybrid only, including the top-selling RAV4 medium SUV, which currently offers four-cylinder petrol and hybrid powertrains.

“Regardless of NVES we’d probably look at that because it’s such a dominant mix,” said Hanley. “It becomes counter-productive to continue with a model mix that represents less than 10 per cent of your model,” he said.

Meanwhile, the next-generation HiLux due in 2025 is tipped to come with the petrol-electric iForce Max hybrid drivetrain already being employed by its North American equivalent, the Tacoma.

But will it also still come with diesel?

On both counts, Hanley said: “You’ll have to wait till 2025”.

Further afield, Hanley painted a future in which internal combustion engines were retained in Toyota models but powered by hydrogen. This technology is undergoing a very public development program by Toyota in Japanese motor racing, while a hydrogen-powered Toyota HiAce V6 was shown off here in late 2023.

While advocates point to the ease of conversion, the affordable cost of existing ICE tech and the retention of jobs in manufacturing industries, critics argue it’s wastefully inefficient and still produces nitrogens of oxide (NOx) emissions. Green hydrogen manufacture and supply infrastructure remain a challenge as well.

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