Toyota: Hormuz has reset the “natural level” of EV market 

The longer-term effects of the on-again, off-again conflict in the Persian Gulf are still keeping fuel prices elevated, but Toyota says one trendline has become obvious: Australia’s exposure to global oil price volatility has led to a permanent reset of where the “natural level” of EV demand sits. 

According to Toyota Australia’s sales boss, local appetites for all-electric vehicles (EVs) has been permanently reshaped by the fuel supply issues caused by the on-going conflict in the Middle East.

Going forward, the brand expects uptake for EVs in this country to be roughly double what the sector recorded prior to the Strait of Hormuz crisis.

Speaking to carsales at the brand’s ‘Multi-Pathway’ media event – where it launched the bZ4X Touring and HiLux BEV – Toyota Australia sales and marketing vice president John Pappas said sales of the regular bZ4X were already on an upswing before the Hormuz crisis steepened the gradient of the sales chart.

“When we launched [the updated model] earlier this year, we saw an increased run rate on the bZ4X,” he said.

“Then we went through the fuel crisis spike… obviously many global markets reflected this spike, but so did we, and now I call what we’re seeing more of a natural level.”

The Australian new car market recorded a massive 32,583 EV sales in June, accounting for 23.3 per cent of all cars, SUVs, and commercial vehicles sold that month.

It’s a massive jump on the seven to 11 per cent market share EVs held in the year prior to airstrikes against Iran commenced and the Strait of Hormuz – a key shipping route for Middle Eastern oil – was shutdown.

June was also the fifth consecutive month of EV market share increase. In February, when the Hormuz crisis began, the segment accounted for 11.83 per cent of the total tally.

In March that increased to 14.57 per cent, then 16.44 in April, and then 19.93 per cent in May.

“The new natural level is double our normal run rate of the bZ4X, together with the [bZ4X] Touring that we’ve just launched,” Papas said.

“Last year we did 1000 bZ4Xs, and this year we believe we’ll do 5000 – that’s five times what we did last year, so there’s definitely healthy demand in our bZ family, even outside of the fuel spike.”

Some regression from June’s landmark EV uptake is expected eventually, but with Australian buyers now far more receptive to electrification than before, it seems very unlikely that electric vehicle market share will dip much below the 20 per cent level in the mid-term.

The next cab off Toyota Australia’s EV rank will be the C-HR EV, which will join the bZ4X SUV, the wagon-bodied bZ4X Touring, and the HiLux BEV in the company’s local EV portfolio.

To be positioned at a lower price point than the existing bZ4X, which opens at $55,990 in 2WD form, the C-HR EV will have the same 74.7kWh battery capacity as the bZ4X, but will be exclusively front-wheel drive, with a maximum output of 165kW/269Nm.

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