Toyota promises sales rebound

After five months of declining year-on-year sales, Toyota Australia is predicting normal service will resume in the second half of 2023.

In fact, the company is so confident of a reversal in its fortunes it is predicting it will hit its usual annual 200,000-plus sales and 20 per cent market share figures in 2023.

That’s despite Toyota’s share of the national new-vehicle sales market currently standing at 15.6 per cent to the end of May 2023, compared to 22.6 per cent at the same time in 2022, following a 28 per cent sales slump so far this year.

According to the official VFACTS numbers, 71,287 Toyotas have been registered to the end of May 2023, down 27,529 compared to the same period in 2022.

Almost every Toyota model line has decreased in sales compared to 2022.

However, Toyota remains the dominant brand in the market, almost 30,000 sales ahead of Mazda, which has also dipped in 2023.

Toyota Australia has surpassed 200,000 sales 18 of the last 19 years and led the market for the last 20 years. Its 231,050 sales in 2022 was its best result in 14 years.

Toyota Australia sales and marketing chief Sean Hanley told carsales to expect a big swing up in numbers for the brand over the next few months as supply frees up and back-orders are filled.

It’s a trend noted in the May 2023 sales results for the industry as a whole, which achieved record overall numbers based on back-orders being filled rather than new demand

Wait lists for popular Toyota models such as the RAV4 Hybrid stretch out to two years, while the 70 Series LandCruiser remains unavailable to order.

“Toyota is aspiring to still get to 20 per cent,” Hanley confirmed.

“We expect to do well over 200,000 sales this year again, so from June onwards will be incredibly busy.

“So if you are a studier of VFACTS have a good look from around June onwards through July, August and September and through, I think you’ll see different mixes.”

Hanley said the VFACTS numbers from the first half of 2023 could be misinterpreted.

“I look at the [sales] results each month and at the moment it’s very difficult to judge what’s really happening in the market.

“I am always intrigued by the headlines each month after VFACTS comes out when the truth of the matter is VFACTS is driven by one single thing right now and that’s those who can supply the cars.”

Despite his bullishness, Hanley confirmed Toyota showroom traffic had slowed as factors such as rising interest rates hit consumers.

He estimated interest levels were now back just above pre-pandemic levels in 2019.

“That’s still very healthy, but the market is nowhere near as strong as it was seven months ago.

“Interest rates are getting traction and I think we have had abnormally high demand for two years now,” he said.

“At some point you have to re-enter normality. Things are normalising now.

“But I don’t see the market dropping off a cliff. When we talk about something better than 2019 levels we’re still talking about [a total market] more than a million cars.”

Asked if a freeing up of supply and a slowing of demand would lead to a return of discounting in the new car market, Hanley refused to speculate.

“Who knows, there are over 50 brands fighting for a 1.1 million market.

“Each company will assess that based on what they have to achieve and how they want to achieve it.”

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