VFACTS for April: Buyers on vacation?

It's not unusual for dealers to record lower levels of foot traffic through the showrooms during the fourth month of each year. But April 2011 was the worst result since the April 2009 result -- in the depths of the GFC.

Total sales for last month were 74,214 -- well ahead of the 2009 figure (63,965), but a long way shy of last year's April result of 81,401. Industry statistician VFACTS put this difference, year on year, at an 8.8 per cent decline.

As Joshua Dowling reported yesterday, industry insiders believe that the perception of stock shortages in the market is encouraging dealers to ease price discounting. And buyers, who aren't yet 'recovered' from the perceived impact of the GFC, may be deterred from buying at the present.

The Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries (FCAI), takes the view that the downturn is principally due to Easter, Anzac Day and school holidays coinciding.

“It seems likely that the timing of the Easter and ANZAC Day holidays, combined with school holidays has been the major factor contributing to lower sales in the past month,” FCAI Chief Executive Andrew McKellar was quoted as saying in a press release.

“Potentially some brands and model lines may face issues with supply over coming months, as a flow-on from the Japan earthquake and tsunami. However most brands have positioned themselves to ensure that they will have adequate stock to meet strong demand over the coming months."

Chances are that the market won't see the full effect of the earthquake and tsunami that occurred in Japan back in March until stock already in the country or on the way has been sold. For those companies directly affected, that may mean early in the second half of this year.

That has to place in doubt the industry's forecast of over a million vehicles for 2011. Even without the impact from the natural disaster in Japan, Toyota's sales for the year to date are nearly 7000 units lower, Holden's are nearly 5000 lower and only Ford's imported products are keeping the sales decline to just 1000 units fewer than last year's tally.

Toyota does remain the most popular brand in Australia, despite its significantly lower sales this year. Sales last month remained 50.1 per cent ahead of second-placed Holden and Toyota's year-to-date sales total of 61,570 is 22,942. The company's senior executive director sales and marketing, David Buttner, acknowledged that the total market for the year so far is down, but remains strong in an historical context.

"There are several factors at play, including the impact of the floods and the fact that households continue to be cautious in borrowing and spending," he said.

"On the plus side, the economic outlook is generally favourable and industries directly affected by the floods are expected to recover and lift production - as well as demand for vehicles - in the months ahead."

Holden's Commodore regained top spot during April, but the Mazda3 remains the top-selling car for the year to date. It will be interesting to see whether the Mazda can remain in front for the rest of the year, given supply is likely to pose a problem down the track.

Having the Cruze in fourth spot is some recompense for Holden. Now locally manufactured -- with the hatch still on its way -- the Cruze (pictured) was runner-up to the Mazda3 in the small-car segment, but pipped Hyundai i30 and the Toyota Corolla.

“We’ve responded to an extremely competitive market by broadening the appeal of core models like Commodore, Captiva and Cruze with a choice of fuel-efficient powertrains, a higher level of overall refinement and more clever features,” said John Elsworth, Holden Executive Director of Sales, Marketing and Aftersales.

“Commodore remains the dominant force in the large car market and we’ve increased our share to 56.9 per cent year-to-date.

“Holden’s product renaissance over the coming 12 months is only going to strengthen the brand with the introduction of exciting new models like the next-generation Barina and all-new locally designed Cruze hatch just over the horizon.”

One question remaining for Holden is whether the Cruze can take top spot in the small car segment once the hatch comes on line -- or will the five-door variants simply substitute four-door sales?

The top ten selling car companies for the year to date were: Toyota (61,570), Holden (38,628), Mazda (29,229), Ford (29,178), Hyundai (27,000), Nissan (22,506), Mitsubishi (20,592), Subaru (13,188), Volkswagen (11,790) and Honda (9891).

Only Mazda, Nissan, Mitsubishi and Volkswagen have improved their sales volumes over the same period last year.

The top ten selling cars for the month were: Holden Commodore (3075), Mazda3 (3044), Toyota Hilux (2889), Holden Cruze (2582), Hyundai i30 (2531), Toyota Corolla (2458), Mitsubishi Triton (1840), Hyundai Getz (1717), Toyota Camry (1577), Mitsubishi Lancer (1468).

As a point of interest, not one SUV sold in four-figure numbers last month.

Read the latest Carsales Network news and reviews on your mobile, iPhone or PDA at carsales' mobile site...