VFACTS for August: Market decline eases

Just as the investment allowance stimulus for big business has begun to peter out, private buyers have stepped back into the breach. August sales, according to industry statistician VFACTS, were down in total by 5.2 per cent, but there were a few rays of light breaking through the gloom.

In a total market of 73,287 vehicles sold for the month of August -- 4036 less than for August '08 -- increases were posted for luxury SUVs (up 19.2 per cent), medium SUVs (up 16.6 per cent), sports cars (1.4 per cent), light cars (0.3 per cent), small cars (7.2 per cent) and vans (8.2 per cent).

August 2008 was the tipping point last year when anxiety began to impact on consumer confidence, so the 5.2 per cent drop in the market for the month -- relative to the 14.2 per cent drop in sales for the year to date -- could be interpreted two ways. Either, as the car companies suggest, it's a sign of the market picking up, or it indicates sales were already seriously waning in August last year. Both may be true.

There is over a hundred thousand units' difference (603,843 for 2009, 703,994 for 2008) between the year-to-date figures for this year and last year. That's a gap unlikely to be narrowed much between now and the end of the year, so how far below the million mark the 2009 market will slump is the big question now. One thing about it, year-to-date figures for 2010 in the early months should show magnificent growth compared with the same period this year.

On balance, industry pundits are satisfied that the August outcome is positive.

"The better than expected sales to private buyers and rental companies have really buoyed the market heading into spring," says FCAI Chief Executive Andrew McKellar.

"Strong demand continues from business buyers who are taking advantage of the tax break available and the effectiveness of the stimulus measure is being reflected in the supply constraints experienced on some models."

McKellar's remarks were echoed by Holden's new MD, Alan Batey, who described the company's stock situation as "quite tight on inventory".

"The good news of that though is we're sitting on a very healthy order bank," said Batey, "so we'll catch that up in now, coming weeks and months."

"What we are now seeing is that the decline is now slowing down," said the Holden boss today. "It was a better result than we were actually forecasting."

Commodore handed over its position as the country's number one-selling car to Toyota's Corolla for the second month running, allowing cheeky Toyota the opportunity to claim market leadership for the 2009/10 financial year. Holden is still calling the Commodore Australia's most popular car, on the strength of overall market leadership for the year to date and calendar year leadership for the past 13 years.

Batey explained that the Commodores lower sales in August could be attributed to the run-out of the 'MY9.5' range, in anticipation of the new MY10 models arriving in dealerships.

Batey was pleased with the sales performance during August for the Captiva (1031 sales), which outsold Ford's Territory (896) and the Cruze small car (1971 units sold), which has been selling well over consecutive months. The Holden MD didn't mention it, but the Captiva's performance was within striking distance of Toyota's medium SUVs, the Kluger (1108) and Prado (1065).

Toyota remains the leading brand in the market, having sold 15,994 for the month, 126,891 for the year to date. As for most other companies in the top ten, Toyota's YTD figure is a long way short of the 165,641 tally for the 2008 year to August.

Holden (9505 for August, 75,923 YTD) is second to Toyota in the top ten, with Ford (7623 in August, 61,862 to date) following in third. The rest comprise Mazda (5863 August, 50,490 for '09 YTD), Hyundai (5980 for August, 42,141 for YTD), Mitsubishi (4551 in August, 35,780 YTD), Nissan (3657 August, 34,367 YTD), Honda (2841 August, 27,848 YTD), Subaru (2602 August, 24,418 YTD) and Volkswagen (2115 August, 20,410 YTD). Only Hyundai's sales for the year to date are ahead of last year's.

The top ten selling vehicles for the month were: Toyota Corolla 3659, Holden Commodore 3329, Mazda3 2898, Ford Falcon 2449, Toyota Hilux 2327, Toyota Camry 2192, Mitsubishi Lancer 2171, Hyundai i30 2105, Holden Cruze 1971 and Hyundai Getz 1868.

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