VFACTS for February: Leap year for sales?

Total Australian new motor vehicle sales figures for February show a 6158-unit increase on the total for February 2007. That suggests the market is not done growing yet.

Amidst all the back-slapping and hand-shaking that went on when VFACTS announced a total market sales figure beyond the one million mark last year, there came the concession that the market probably would exceed one million vehicles again this year, but not by much.

So far -- and in spite of fools' paradise petrol pricing, interest rate rises and a sliding sharemarket -- the new vehicle market appears to remain committed to further growth for 2008.

The top-selling cars in the market for February were the Holden Commodore (large, 4313 units sold), Toyota Corolla (small, 4191 units sold) and Mazda3 (small, 2825 units sold).

Both the Holden and the Mazda lost market share and physical sales, year-on-year (YOY), but the Toyota's sales figure was exactly 600 units ahead of its figure for February 2007.

In the light car segment, Toyota Yaris (2280 cars sold), led Hyundai Getz (1605) and Holden Barina (1289). The Holden narrowly beat (by 17 units for the month), the rapidly improving Mazda2. Yaris's performance was over 200 units down, YOY and its market share had dropped from 26.0 to 19.1 per cent, YOY.

Other than the Mazda2, there are two new competitors which might be making life hard for the Toyota. Those are the new Nissan Micra and the Volkswagen Polo. The Nissan wasn't in the market this time last year, but posted 614 sales for the month and the Volkswagen has picked up almost 500 extra units over the YOY figure from February last year.

For light cars above $25,000, the clear leader was the Peugeot 207 (114 units), ahead of the newly released Fiat 500 (47 units) and the Citroen C3 (41).

Perennial favourite, the Toyota Corolla, top-scored in small cars. The 150 series model was 600 units ahead of its predecessor's tally in February 2007. As already mentioned, the Mazda3 followed the Corolla into second spot, but both sales and market share were down for the month, YOY. The Mazda's figure of 2825 units sold was almost 200 units down, YOY and the market share had dropped from February 2007's figure of 16.2 to 14.1 per cent.

Filling third spot was the Mitsubishi Lancer, which recorded 1682 sales for the month, a significant improvement on the 1590 recorded in February 2007, yet market share has fallen slightly -- in a larger overall market segment of course -- from 8.6 per cent last year to 8.4 per cent in February 2008.

The Lancer just held out the Honda Civic on 1662 units sold. As for the Lancer, the Civic's sales were actually ahead of last year's, but market share was down. Subaru's Impreza and the Volkswagen Golf are two small cars that are showing massive sales growth in the segment. The Impreza benefits from being a new design altogether since last year and the Golf -- we suspect -- has gained from more aggressive marketing and a low-priced entry-level model.

In the case of small cars above $40,000, the top three were BMW 1 Series (176 units sold), MINI Cooper (131 units) and Audi A3 (123).

Toyota's Camry continues to lead the medium car segment on 1723 units sold for the month. Interestingly, that is over 800 units down on its YOY performance last year. No other car sold in four figures. The Mazda6 sold 931 units (over 200 down on Feb '07), but the Subaru Liberty had a good month, selling 728 units, versus 587 in February 2007. The Mazda's slower sales were probably a result of Mazda running out (and running out of) stock of the first generation model, as the new car hit the showrooms. In that light, the Mazda's performance was quite good.

Holden's Epica sold 470 units for the month and the Ford Mondeo sold 392.

Honda seems to be taking a leaf out of Mazda's book, selling more Accord Euros this time (450 units) than last year, despite the new model revealed at the Geneva Motor Show just this week.

The top three sellers in medium cars priced above $60,000 were BMW 3 Series (548 units sold), Mercedes-Benz C-Class (372 units) and Lexus IS250 (299 units).

As already mentioned, Holden's Commodore was the leading large car in sales, with a figure of 4313 units sold in February. That's over 1200 units less than February 2007. For all that, the Commodore's market share didn't slip too much (down from 46.2 to 45.0 per cent, YOY). That indicates how much the whole large car segment has shrunk in just 12 months.

The Ford Falcon was the second most popular car in the segment with 2520 units sold and, even though total sales fell away by over 500 units, YOY, the Falcon's market share actually improved! Also, pleasingly for Ford, the Falcon's sales were double the number for January. The improvement is almost certainly a consequence of Ford launching the limited edition Falcon SR run-out model.

Third place in the segment went to the Toyota Aurion (1855 units), which sold barely 38 units more than in February 2007, but increased market share from 15.1 to 19.4 per cent -- again, a sign of the segment's shrinkage. The total segment, at 9582 units for the month, was over 2400 units less than the figure for February 2007, 12,012 units.

BMW's 5 Series was the top selling large car above $70,000, with 111 units sold. Behind the BMW came Mercedes-Benz E-Class (87 units) and the Audi A6 (62).

Chrysler has regained a place on the podium in the upper large car segment, 300C (112 units sold) displacing the Fairlane in third place. No surprise there. Holden's Statesman (218 units sold for the month) was the top selling car, ahead of its high-spec sibling, the Caprice on 198 units for the month.

This is another market segment that has experienced a significant decline in sales, YOY, but the two Holdens are holdin' steady. The Chrysler's market share is also steady, but actual sales have dropped by 56 units, YOY.

Top three sellers in upper large cars priced above $100,000 were the Mercedes-Benz S-Class (23 units sold), Lexus LS (16 units) and Audi A8 (9 units).

Yet another segment that has attracted fewer sales is the people mover segment. Kia's Carnival (281 units sold), remains ahead of the Honda Odyssey (177 units) and the Toyota Tarago (175 units). Of the three, only the Honda actually picked up both market share and sales numbers. The Kia and the Toyota each lost approximately 150 units, YOY, which affected the Toyota's market share even worse than the Kia's, since the Kia was sliding from a higher sales figure in the first place.

Volkswagen's Multivan, with 25 units sold for the month, headed the people mover segment for vehicles priced over $55,000. Behind the VW came the Chrysler Voyager with 15 units and the Mercedes-Benz Vito with nine vehicles sold.

In the sports segment, the Volkswagen Eos continues to outpace the others, with sales of 123 units for the month. That figure is 93 ahead, YOY and market share is way up.

Second to the Eos was the Saab 9-3 convertible on 79 units sold. As for the Volkswagen, the Saab has enjoyed a massive improvement in fortunes there. Sales up by 46 units YOY and a substantial gain in market share accordingly.

Third place went to the Mazda RX-8 on 72 units sold, which, selling just two more cars than in February last year, snuck one sale ahead of its stablemate, the MX-5.

Accounting for over 40 per cent of the market for sports cars above $80,000, the BMW 3 Series was far and away the most popular entrant in the segment, with 238 units sold. Audi TT followed up with 101 sales and the Mercedes CLK came third with 75 units.

Porsche's 911 was the most popular sports car over $200,000 (47 units sold). Second went to Maserati (19 units) and third was taken by the Audi R8 (12).

In Compact SUVs for February, Toyota's RAV4 enjoyed a purple patch, selling 1409 units for the month -- nearly 300 units better, YOY. Those extra sales will undoubtedly be recorded against the V6 version.

The Compact SUV segment was one that grew, YOY. Following the RAV4, the Honda CR-V (1115 units sold) also enjoyed substantial sales growth YOY -- about 160 units ahead.

Bucking that trend, the Nissan X-TRAIL sold 910 units for the month, over 200 less, YOY and with 4.5 per cent less market share accordingly. Interestingly, the relatively new Nissan Dualis sold 209 units for the month -- could be cannibalising X-TRAIL sales?

In medium SUVs, the Toyota Kluger (1404 units sold), took the lead from Ford Territory (1299 units) and the Toyota Prado (1262 units). This result was to be expected, with the release late last year of the new Kluger, including 4x2 models that compete directly with the 4x2 Territory models. This is also a sign that Toyota is getting on top of the supply problems that have limited Kluger sales up to this point.

Both the Territory and Prado have lost sales, YOY and market share has declined, despite the segment being in a growth phase. There are a couple of new entries -- the Mazda CX-9 and Hummer H3 -- that have expanded the segment, but at the cost of market share for the Territory and Prado.

There's little to report in large SUVs. Toyota's LandCruiser remains out in front, continuing to sell in three figures (1005 units) -- more than double the sales of second-placed Nissan Patrol (479 units). Jeep Commander languished in third with 26 units sold.

Curiously, even this segment has seen sales growth, YOY. Perhaps the initial petrol price shock has been shaken off by those who can afford both the purchase price of large SUVs and the running costs that go with them.

Now here's something you don't see every day: Lexus leading BMW in a market segment -- specifically luxury SUVs. The Lexus RX (271 units sold), squeaked in ahead of the BMW X5 (262 units for the month) and the Land Rover Discovery (184 units).

In vans, Toyota's HiAce was the -- as usual -- the top seller, with 950 units sold for the month. Both the total market segment and the HiAce's share of it grew, YOY. The total market grew by about 600 units -- and the HiAce accounted for nearly 450 of those.

Mitsubishi sold more Express vans (328 for the month) than in February last year, but the Express's market share dropped from 18.6 to 15.3 per cent -- which illustrates the extent of growth in this segment.

The third-placed van was the Ford Transit (174 units sold), despite the sales figure being 65 units behind the figure from February 2007. Ford has just recently upgraded the Transit, so that break in sales momentum between one model year and the next may have been the problem there.

Toyota's HiLux sold in roughly the same numbers as in February 2007, which means that as a proportion of the 4x2 pick-up/cab chassis market segment, the Toyota went backwards. Sales for last month were 1497 units, versus 1466 in February '07.

Compare that with Holden's VE Ute -- the second most popular vehicle in the segment -- on 1453 units sold last month, against 842 units of the old VZ model sold in February 2007. Holden has picked up 6.5 per cent market share over last year's, YOY. The HiLux lost 4.4 per cent market share. We expect Toyota will come back swinging in March.

In third place, the Ford Falcon Ute put in a strong showing, selling 1207 cars for the month. That's about 78 units behind, YOY. The Ford lost a lot of market share, relatively, but given the FG Falcon models are on the way, it was a fairly good effort to retain as much market share and sales as the Falcon did.

In the 4x4 pick-up/cab chassis segment, the HiLux held sway by a considerable margin -- 1828 units sold for the month. A long way back was the Nissan Navara on 1210 units. Third place went to the Mitsubishi Triton, with 873 units sold. Toyota expanded its sales of the HiLux and increased market share, YOY.

The Navara's sales were less than half the figure from February 2007, but that figure included sales of the old D22 model -- which is coming back with a new, cleaner engine. That may force Toyota sales people to work a bit harder.

With 793 units sold for the month -- an improvement on the 543 units sold in February 2007 -- the Holden Rodeo was the fourth most popular vehicle in the segment. We'll monitor the Rodeo's performance closely in coming months, since the word is that Holden will be forced to drop this vehicle from its line-up and possibly replace it with a larger vehicle, such as the Chevrolet Colorado or GMC Canyon light trucks.

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