VFACTS for March: Buyers out of step during quick March

Economists are never happy. If they can't report Australia is headed for a recession, they'll take delight in announcing that the Australian economy is overheating. Inflation is on the move and only our mineral resources boom is maintaining our current level of prosperity, it seems.

So, with the usual doom and gloom of interest rate rises, the persistent high cost of fuel, increasingly unaffordable housing and an Aussie dollar that makes both our domestic tourism industry and our exporters uncompetitive with the rest of the world, you could be forgiven for thinking that the sales slump in the Australian new car market last month was a sign of negative consumer sentiment.

In fact, it was nothing as drastic as that, according to the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries -- the body that represents car companies and runs VFACTS, which monitors sales statistics for the domestic market.

A lot of new car buyers during the month delayed the purchase of a new car until after returning from Easter and the attendant school holidays in some states (more here).

Despite that, the market still posted a figure of 91,285 vehicles sold for the month, about 3107 units down on the March 2007 figure of 94,392.

Passenger cars took the heaviest knock, year-on-year (YOY) -- accounting for a shortfall of 4635 vehicles. SUVs, light and heavy trucks all showed an increase, YOY, in spite of the reduction in selling days.

The top five makes in year-to-date (YTD) terms were Toyota (60,224 units, up from 56,230 for YTD 2007), Holden (33,850, down from 37,795 for YTD 2007), Ford (26,287, down from 26,685 for YTD 2007), Mazda (21,690, up from 20,132 for YTD 2007) and Mitsubishi (16,690, up from 15,821 for YTD 2007).

In the light car segment, Toyota Yaris continued in its leading position, with sales of 2171 units for the month, ahead of Hyundai Getz (1406 units) and Mazda2 (1327). Both the Getz and Yaris appeared to suffer from what might be called SMS ('Short March Syndrome'), but the Mazda2 is still moving ahead in leaps and bounds.

The new model '2' is ahead of the old car's YOY figure for March '07 and has out-stripped market share figures for both YTD and YOY comparisons. So March was a pretty strong month for the Mazda2, against the odds.

Peugeot's 207 (152 units sold in March), led light cars over $25,000, ahead of Citroen C3 (36) and Fiat Punto (29).

The Toyota Corolla led the small car segment with sales of 3968 for the month, ahead of Mazda3 on 3039 and the Mitsubishi Lancer (1902). Although the Corolla sold slightly fewer cars than this time last year, its overall market share for March '08 (20.6 per cent) was slightly better than the YTD average, 20.4.

Similar comments apply to the Mazda, to an extent. Its market share for the month (15.7 per cent), is the same as for March 2007, even though the actual sales figure was reduced by 143 units. The market share for the month is better than the YTD market share (14.9).

Mitsubishi's Lancer has gained from a new model and is ahead in not only sales, YOY, but also market share (9.9 per cent for March '08) compared both YOY and even YTD (8.5 per cent).

Small cars above $40,000 were led by the Audi A3 on 187 units sold in March. Runners up to the Audi were the MINI Cooper (154) and the BMW 1 Series (135).

Toyota's Camry took top spot in medium cars, with sales of 2332 for March '08 (versus 2574 in March '07). Quite a long way behind the Toyota came the Mazda6 on 937 units sold during March. Subaru's Liberty did well during March, with sales of 598 units comparing favourably with the figure of 579 in March 2007, although the Subie's market share for the month (9.6 per cent) doesn't compare with the car's YTD market share (11.7 per cent).

We're at a loss to explain this, other than laying the blame at the feet of the Ford Mondeo, which incurred sales of 356 units and is beginning to show signs of growth in a segment where it hasn't previously figured all that largely. The Holden Epica sold 319 units during March and both cars were out-sold by the Honda Accord Euro (438 units), a car that is due for replacement in coming months.

Mercedes-Benz C-Class (633 units), led both the Lexus IS250 (370) and the BMW 3 Series (299) in the medium car segment above $60,000.

No surprises in large cars. Commodore led with 3988 units sold, from Ford's Falcon on 2322 for the month, and the Toyota Aurion on 2235. Holden should be concerned about the significant decline in Commodore sales and Ford must be hoping that the Falcon's sales performance will be reversed once the FG Falcon goes on sale next month. Holden may be pinning hopes on the VE Sportwagon to improve the Commodore's fortunes.

Apart from the Aurion, only one other car in the large segment showed signs of YOY growth and that was the Honda Accord, which is new to the market in its CP generation guise with variable cylinder management V6. The Honda sold 924 units, versus 834 of the old car during March '07.

Mercedes-Benz led the large car segment above $70,000, courtesy of the E-Class (194 units sold for the month), ahead of the BMW 5 Series (89) and the Audi A6 (72).

In upper large cars, Holden's WM models continued to dominate, with the Statesman (179 units), heading the Caprice (166 units), despite the latter being ahead in YTD figures. Chrysler's 300C recorded 98 units sold for the month and the Ford Fairlane, in what is likely its final official month on sale, sold 14 units.

Curiously, the Fairlane was the top-selling vehicle in the segment in March 2007. Just goes to show that production of a basically good car is unsustainable in a market segment like this unless the manufacturer can also fall back on exports.

For upper large cars over $100,000, the Mercedes-Benz S-Class took 24 sales for the month, followed by the Lexus LS (17) and the BMW 7 Series (14).

Kia's Carnival remained in the lead for people movers, with a March sales figure of 394, followed by the Toyota Tarago on 358 units and the Toyota Avensis on 97. In YTD figures, the Carnival (918 units) is well ahead of the Tarago on 740.

A new Chrysler Voyager took class-leading position in people movers priced above $55,000, with 29 sales for March, eight ahead of the Volkswagen Multivan (21) and 17 ahead of the Mercedes-Benz Viano (12).

Volkswagen Eos continues to kick goals in the sports car segment, selling 229 units during March and beating the YTD market share figure of 23.3 per cent with a monthly market share of 25.9 per cent.

Behind the Eos came the Ford Focus CC on 107 and the Mazda MX-5 (99).

Selling 252 units for the month, the BMW 3 Series enjoyed a good March in sports cars above $80,000, as did the Mercedes-Benz CLK, with 119 units sold. Both cars enjoyed better market share, YOY and comparing the month with the YTD figure.

Audi's TT finished the month with 86 units sold.

The three top-selling sports cars above $200,000 were the Porsche 911 (44 units sold), Maserati (21 units of all types) and the Audi R8 (also 21 units sold).

March was a quiet month for compact SUVs generally. The Toyota RAV4 was the only vehicle to break into four digit figures (1349 sold), with the Nissan X-Trail (939 units) and the Honda CR-V (904) following up behind. There are probably more private buyers in this segment than in the heavier SUV segments, so fewer buyers would have been in the market for the light-duty softroaders over the course of the month.

By comparison, medium SUVs enjoyed a good month overall. The Toyota Kluger (1446 units), remained clear of the Ford Territory (1310 units) and the Toyota Prado (1052 units). Of the three, only the Kluger is ahead of its sales performance from March of last year (admittedly, in an earlier generation and without the cheaper FWD models in the range).

The conclusion for the total segment sales escalating YOY when Territory and Prado sales actually fell is inescapable. Firstly, the Kluger is far and away ahead of the old model's sales performance and secondly, there are new entries such as the Mazda CX-9 (603 units sold), which is making its presence felt with all the subtlety of a bull in a china shop. Holden's Captiva (898) is also doing better this year with its diesel engine option.

In the large SUV segment, Toyota's LandCruiser 200 Series sold 1091, nearly 200 units better than the old 100 Series model in March last year. Nissan's Patrol sold 365 for the month and Jeep Commander netted 32.

At 418 units sold in March, the BMW X5 has almost doubled the sales of its nearest competitor in luxury SUVs. That competitor is the Lexus RX (218), which is followed by the Range Rover Sport on 178 units sold.

Moving on to light commercials, Toyota's HiAce was the top-selling van, with sales of 937 units for the month. Although the HiAce was considerably ahead of its sales tally for March '07 (675 units), its March '08 market share (40.8 per cent) showed a slight decline over the YTD percentage of 43.0.

Mitsubishi's Express registered 366 units sold for the month (with a market share of 15.9 per cent -- down on YOY market share, but bettering the YTD figure of 15.2).

Behind the Express came the Ford Transit, with 198 units sold. March market share (8.6 per cent) for the Transit is keeping pace with the YTD figure (8.8), but the YOY sales and market share are both a long way short of the March 2007 figures.

Any takers for the top-selling 4x2 pick-up/cab-chassis model? Toyota HiLux remained at the top of the totem pole with a sales figure of 1557 for the month. Injecting a little interest in this segment was the Holden VE Ute, which sold 1345 units for the month. Barely 200 units behind the HiLux, the Holden is also over 400 units ahead of its March '07 figure when the VZ model was still being sold.

For all that, the newish Holden is not far ahead of the Ford Falcon Ute, which sold 1291 units for the month. That figure is not much less than this time last year (1310) and must be helping Ford execs breathe easier at night in the lead-in to the FG model's release.

Finishing up, the 4x4 pick-ups and cab/chassis models were led for the month of March by the Toyota HiLux on 1972 units, followed by the Nissan Navara on 1660 and the Holden Rodeo on 930. The HiLux slid backwards, seeing a 435-unit decline, YOY and market share (26.1 per cent) also below par.

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