VFACTS for March: Dead cat bounce?

A straightforward comparison of new-car sales in March 2009 with the same month a year ago reveals a 17.1 per cent slide. Fortunately, that has to be seen in the light of comparing a market currently dogged by external financial and economic influences versus a market on its way to setting another new record for sales.

Total sales for March '09 were 75,650 units, 15,635 units less than in March 2008. With the disparity between the first half of the two years (2008 and 2009), we won't see a 'plateau' until around September of this year. That's not to say that the plateau isn't already there, but we're comparing two extremely different markets for the present. Of course, should the domestic economy worsen in the meantime, the sales graph may continue to show the market 'down' even later into the year and perhaps next year as well.

According to VFACTS figures released today, the March 2009 sales tally was actually up by 7.7 per cent, seasonally adjusted against the February 2009 sales, so that strongly suggests the market is not in continuing decline. As further evidence, the year-to-date figure (212,970 vehicles sold) shows a 19.2 per cent decline over the 2008 YTD, so the 17.1 per cent 'drop' in March is less than the average for the year so far.

"This result is certainly down on a year ago but the extent of the fall in the market appears to have stabilised somewhat in recent months," confirmed Chief Executive of the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries, Andrew McKellar.

"Around the world the automotive industry has been disproportionately affected by the impact of the financial crisis and resultant economic downturn.  We can take some comfort from the fact that the Australian new vehicle market has performed far better than those in almost all other developed economies."

YTD comparisons with March last year are almost pointless, but for the record, passenger vehicle sales were down by 9603 units (-18.1 per cent), SUVs were down 3438 units (-25.2 per cent) and light trucks were down 1847 units (-11.0 per cent). From this, it appears that business confidence is significantly ahead of consumer sentiment among private buyers.

Toyota was the top-selling brand in March, shifting 16,608 units for the month and keeping on top with 44,309 units for the year-to-date. Holden sold 9188 for the month, followed by Ford with 7570 sales. The top ten car companies on the strength of year-to-date performance are Toyota (44,309), Holden (26,979), Ford (20,986), Mazda (19,024), Mitsubishi (13,085), Hyundai (12,759), Nissan (12,598), Honda (11,807), Subaru (9288) and Volkswagen (7094). Of those, only Hyundai has sold more cars this year so far, than for the same period last year.

Audi has to be singled out for special mention yet again. As in previous months, the German prestige importer has remained ahead of sales for both March 2008 (846 sales last month, versus 809 12 months earlier) and the (YTD) first quarter figure of 2599 units in 2008. It was the introduction of the Q5 in March that provided the company with an extra 101 units it wouldn't have had otherwise. The company has sold 2733 vehicles this year.

BMW also gained momentum in March, selling 1450 units in March, as opposed to the 1322 units sold in March 2008. Credit for that largely goes to the upgraded 3 Series.

Dodge continues to defy logic and the market slump, selling 320 units for the month (versus 258 for March '08) and 906 units YTD (705 for last year). The Nitro is the gun seller for the brand.

Hyundai is another company that is ahead of last year's effort, on the basis of both monthly sales (4907 for March '09, 4193 for March '08) and year-to-date (12,759 for 2009, 11,375 for 2008).

Jaguar is ahead on both bases as well, thanks to the XF. Sales for the month were 58 units (versus 46 for March '08) and YTD sales are 180 units (146 for 2008).

Skoda is gradually building sales, it seems; 79 units versus 62 for monthly sales and 182 versus 163 for YTD sales. Virtually all those added sales go to the facelifted Octavia and its new entry-level petrol variant.

Subaru sold more in March (3415 units) than it did in March 2008 (2885), but is over a thousand units behind its 2008 YTD figure (9288 this year, 10,315 last year).

The top-selling cars for the month were:

Holden Commodore 3544
Toyota HiLux 3306
Toyota Corolla 3007
Mazda3 2801
Ford Falcon 1990
Toyota Yaris 1741
Hyundai Getz 1597
Nissan Navara 1562
Toyota Camry 1515
Hyundai i30 1503