VFACTS for November: sales slump worsens

The sales decline for the Australian new-car market continued during November, with lost sales doubling the figure for October. Not one market segment escaped the buyer strike during the month.

Just 71,617 vehicles were sold during November, according to the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries (FCAI) -- that's 20,464 units (22.2 per cent) fewer than the 92,081 tally for November 2007.

Seasonally adjusted, the November '08 figure represented a 9.8 per cent decrease over the October total. For the year to date, the market has reached 935,684 sales, which constitutes a rollback of 28,078 units or 2.9 per cent, compared with the numbers for this time last year.

All the same, the FCAI is still forecasting a 2008 market (just) exceeding a million new vehicles -- 1.019 million.

The four market classes were all blighted by buyer resistance, with passenger cars tumbling by 11,176 sales (20.6 per cent) over November 2007. SUVs were down 4966 units (28.1 per cent), light trucks dropped 3379 sales (20.6 per cent) and heavy commercials lost 943 sales (25.0 per cent).

Toyota led the market in November, with Holden and Ford occupying the second and third spots respectively.

In year-to-date terms, Toyota is ahead of the pack and remains clear of its 2007 total by nearly 4000 units. Both Holden (2) and Ford (3) have sold fewer cars this year than over the same period last year. On the other hand, Mazda (4) has increased sales -- and according to MD Doug Dickson, is likely to improve on its 2007 sales for the full year, but won't reach the 80,000-unit projection for 2008.

Mitsubishi (5), Nissan (6), Honda (7) and Hyundai (8) are all behind their year-to-date figures for 2007. Subaru (9) and Volkswagen (10) have both bettered their respective year-to-date figures.

One particular strong performer is Audi. The German importer remains ahead of last year's year-to-date figures and also sold more vehicles in November '08 than for the same month last year. This suggests that the company's tactic of absorbing the extra cost of the higher Luxury Car Tax has worked well and has kept sales constant during the uncertain period between the Treasurer's announcement of the new tax and the actual implementation. Even in November, sales were up, relative to the November '07 result.

Two other companies that have performed relatively well during this period have been Jaguar and Renault. Jaguar has gained from the stronger sales of the new XF, against a lacklustre performance last year from the S-Type. In the case of Renault, it's a little harder to pinpoint the major contributor to the importer's improved standing. Koleos is not selling in anything like the numbers Renault had hoped to achieve with the SUV, but other products are picking up the slack.

The FCAI acknowledged that the market is bleak, based on the November figures, but the peak body is also of the view that the current economic climate provides unprecedented scope for snagging a bargain.

"It is clear that people are being more cautious with their money as the magnitude of the global financial crisis deepens," said FCAI Chief Executive Andrew McKellar of the result.

"Certainly the most recent interest rate cut was well justified, and it is hoped this will help restore some confidence and stability to the marketplace.

"On the up-side, there are going to be some very competitive opportunities for anyone considering buying a car in the near future."

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