VFACTS for November: Sales stampede

The Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries (the FCAI) is talking up the market following the release of VFACTS figures today, showing a 19.9 per cent improvement on sales for November 2008.

An aggregate figure of 85,833 passenger cars, SUVs and commercial vehicles for the market last month represents a substantial gain on the figure of 71,617 for November 2008, but is arguably only half-way there, when you consider the figure of 92,081 for the period of November 2007.

Another way of looking at the overall picture is that the figure for last month was bolstered by the government's investment allowance tax incentive for small businesses -- which will also artificially inflate sales figures for December too. Considering sales during the final months of 2007 were incurred in a record-breaking year, perhaps the November 2009 figure is not too shabby at all.

Certainly the car companies are pleased that the market has shaken off the malaise of economic gloom prevailing from around August of last year.

"This is an extraordinary result that provides further evidence that the market and the broader Australian economy are showing signs of recovery," said FCAI Chief Executive Andrew McKellar in a press release issued today.

"The exceptional November figures could not have been achieved without the Federal Government’s small business tax break. Business sales increased an incredible 35.4 per cent during the month; spurred on by the substantial incentives available until the end of the year."

The FCAI chief expressed some concern that interest rate rises implemented by the Reserve Bank of Australia might dampen consumer confidence too much, but in all, the peak body and its members appear relieved that sales are reflecting a broader sense of optimism in the community.

"From a volume perspective, we continue to upgrade the market forecast for the year..." said Mitsubishi President and CEO Robert McEniry.

"Effectively, every week now we are looking at an improving situation for this year and next year. Economic data continues to improve in Australia; business and consumer confidence is up significantly from where it was earlier this year; the federal government continues to issue new favourable forecasts on unemployment levels and budget deficit outlooks; and the $A is strengthening against the weakening US dollar. And, of course, we're seeing strong recoveries in the economies of our major trading partners -- particularly China.

"Reserve Bank Governor Glenn Stevens noted that Australia was not only on the road to recovery, but more on the road to prosperity. So the outlook is reasonably good... and a marked improvement on just 12 months ago."

The Mitsubishi head predicted a final market for 2009 of around 915,000 units, with a similar figure -- ranging between 910,000 and 920,000 units -- for 2010.

"We can expect continuing stable market conditions, as we go forward. And I think the pleasing thing about that market outlook is that it indicates that despite the 50 per cent investment allowance, there is, in fact, a very strong foundation in the market as we go forward. Even though we may see some variability as the 50 per cent quashes out, the fundamentals under the market... still look pretty good."

Curiously, light-car sales for the month recorded 412 fewer sales than in November 2008 -- at the height of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) when everyone was downsizing to smaller cars. The large-car segment was the only other passenger-car category to register fewer sales: 125 down, year-on-year. All SUV segments saw gains in sales for the month, over November 2008. The total light trucks market improved on November 2008, although light buses retreated by 70 units.

At the head of the sales ladder for both the month and the year to date was Toyota (19,603 for November, 180,389 for 2009 so far). Holden was next (11,391 November, 107,795 Year to date), followed by Ford (8868 November, 87,397 YTD). Mazda holds on to fourth spot (6594 November, 69,926 YTD), ahead of Hyundai (5262 November, 59,168 YTD).

Mitsubishi secured sixth position (5322 November, 50,189 YTD) and Nissan took seventh (4857 November, 47,787 YTD). In eighth and ninth spots respectively were Honda (3154 November, 37,925 YTD) and Subaru (3049 November, 33,576 YTD), while Volkswagen rounded out the ten (2668 November, 28,011 YTD). Volkswagen and Hyundai are the only two companies in the top ten to register more sales this year than in 2008 -- with the Korean company ahead for the year by an astonishing figure of 17,378.

Top-ten selling cars for the month were: Toyota HiLux (4230), Holden Commodore (3956), Toyota Corolla (3309), Ford Falcon (2863), Mazda3 (2548), Holden Cruze (2274), Mitsubishi Lancer (2023), Toyota Camry (2003), Hyundai i30 (1998), Toyota Yaris (1725). 

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