VFACTS for October: American tremors felt across the Pacific

The Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries (FCAI) has released sales figures for the local new-car market -- and the news isn't good. Total sales of 79,105 units for the month represented a shortfall of 10,184 sales compared with October 2007. As a percentage, the market declined by 11.4 per cent, year on year.

It wasn't all bad news though. In varying percentages, BMW, Fiat, Ford, Honda, Nissan, Renault, Skoda, smart and Suzuki all enjoyed better sales last month than for October 2007. Ford actually sold over 300 more units (8567 vs. 8206). Both the other local manufacturers sold fewer cars for the month, year on year. Toyota (18,705 for the month, 202,511 for the year so far) remains ahead of its 2007 sales for the year to date, but Holden (10,171 for the month, 109,771 for 2008 to date) is now nearly 14,000 units behind its tally as at the same time last year.

Based on year-to-date figures among the top ten companies, Toyota (1), Ford (3), Mazda (4), Nissan (6), Subaru (9) and Volkswagen (10) remain ahead of where they were this time last year. Holden (2), Mitsubishi (5), Honda (7) and Hyundai (8) are all behind the corresponding year-to-date figures for 2007.

Seasonally adjusted, the market during October was 1.3 per cent below the total for the previous month, September. Expressed in year to date terms, the total market of 864,037 vehicles is 7614 units or 0.9 per cent behind the market at the same time in 2007.

Despite this, the FCAI still forecasts a total market of 1.035 million vehicles sold by the end of the year. Sales in every market class barring light trucks (passenger, SUV, heavy commercials) took a tumble during October, but there was one bright spot.

In SUVs, the LandCruiser 200 Series is singlehandedly keeping its segment buoyant and large SUVs are actually ahead of October 2007's sales by 248 units. The Toyota's sales last month were more than double those of the superseded 100 Series model in October '07. Of course, the Large SUV segment is almost unique, being populated by just the LandCruiser, the Nissan Patrol and the Jeep Commander. Any fluctuations in the sales of just one of those models will have a considerable effect on the total segment.

In every other passenger-car or SUV segment (including the normally recession-proof light and small car segments), sales were down, by comparison with October 2007. Even luxury SUVs, a segment not expected to suffer the drop in sales that other segments have, reported 42.8 per cent fewer vehicles sold than in October '07.

But the economy is still thriving, even if private buyers are backing away. In light trucks, total sales were 1149 units better than for October 2007. Every segment within the light truck class contributed the extra volume, but the big mover was the Pick-up/Cab Chassis 4x4 segment, which improved on October '07's tally by 637 units.

Despite Toyota losing 1507 sales for the month, it remains the top-selling company in Australia for October and for the year to date. Holden recorded 10,171 units sold for the month and remains the second most popular brand on a monthly and year to date basis. In third place came Ford, with 8567 for the month.

The results for October almost certainly reflect the uncertainty of private buyers in light of the global economic meltdown. There's also evidence to suggest the government's imposition of a higher luxury car tax continues to deter buyers of vehicles priced above $57,180.

Based on the FCAI's one million plus forecast, the Chamber plainly expects private buyers to re-enter the fold, once the panic has dissipated. Chances are good that November sales will show some 'bounce'.

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