VFACTS for October: On target for million plus

There are just two months remaining in the calendar year and the automotive industry is looking forward to a total market above one million units once more. Last year the industry was held back by sales stagnation in the early part of the year, so the total for 2009 didn't reach a million, but still finished higher than expected, thanks to tax break stimuli from the federal government.

There has been no such incentive in 2010, yet October sales finished above the tally for October last year, according to figures supplied by industry statistician, VFACTS. The total figure for passenger cars, SUVs and commercial vehicles sold for the month -- 80,925 -- was 0.1 per cent higher than for October 2009. To put that another way, the difference was a meager 112 vehicles more this year than the same month last year.

Last month's result has raised the year-to-date sales figure to 861,645 vehicles, 98,858 units ahead of the same period last year. That difference equates to an extra 13.0 per cent for 2010, but it's not an 'apples with apples' comparison, since the market in the early half of 2009 was reacting to the prospects of a recession and anticipating the GFC would hit the local economy harder than it did. In the latter part of the year, sales picked up substantially after the government introduced tax incentives for big- and small business. Last month's result was better than for the same time last year, even without the incentives, as Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries Chief Executive, Andrew McKellar, pointed out earlier today.

"This is a solid result with sales on a par with the good figures recorded in October last year," he said.

"It needs to be acknowledged that sales this time last year were being boosted by the stimulus of the business tax break so it is encouraging to see that the market is maintaining that momentum," he said.

"The market is on track for an impressive yearly total and this confirms the industry can achieve our projection of more than one million vehicle sales."

To exceed a million units sold in 2010, the market has to move an average of roughly 70,000 cars a month during November and December. Both months accounted for better results than that, even in the depths of the GFC at the end of 2008.

The slight gain in overall sales for October was principally due to the SUV class, which posted a 22.9 per cent improvement for the month. Both passenger cars and commercial vehicles slipped back during the same period: 2.7 per cent and 13.3 per cent, respectively.

Toyota, the top-selling brand in Australia, leads from Holden by 62,000 vehicles and plans to finish 2010 with a total of over 200,000 units sold. The company's senior executive director sales and marketing, David Buttner, explained that Toyota's winning ways are helped by added equipment in select models and a new finance package to attract buyers.

"Toyota has improved the value across the range of Yaris, Corolla and Kluger vehicles by offering more features with lower prices," he said.

"We are also promoting a remarkable finance offer with a comparison interest rate of just 2.9 per cent on Yaris YR and Corolla Ascent five-door hatches, as well as Hybrid Camry and Prius.

"This is a concerted campaign to provide customers with even better value -- a move we believe will lift our sales even higher in November and December."

Holden is placed a distant second, but is gradually hauling in Toyota. Commodore remains the top selling car in Australia and Barina has enjoyed a strong month for sales.

"October was the first full month of VE Series II sales and the new technology and styling changes have been embraced by buyers from Omega to Caprice V," said John Elsworth, Holden's Executive Director for Sales, Marketing and Aftersales.

As expected, Holden has combined sales of the Barina with the Barina Spark (a completely different vehicle, but joining the older Daewoo Kalos-based TK Barina in the light-car segment). This is why the 'Barina' sales for October reached 1071 units, against 861 in October 2009. Holden took advantage of having two light cars -- both named Barina -- to optimise its sales score in the light-car segment.

Most companies with multiple entries in the same segment distinguish between the two, thus reducing the opportunity to brag. Take for example, Honda's City and Jazz. One's a sedan, the other's a hatch, but they're both built on the same platform. City sold slightly more last month than in October 2009, but the new Jazz (876 last month) seriously outperformed the old model's figure of 298 in October '09.

The Honda situation was unusual however. More cars experienced a slump in sales; Hyundai providing another example of two models in the same segment, but the new i20 (522 sold last month) was actually cannibalising sales from the older Getz. Last month, the Getz sold 1575 units, versus 2198 in October '09. The difference 12 months makes? Introduction of a newer car, the i20...

It's a similar situation with the Suzuki Swift and Alto, or the Proton S16 and Savvy. But a company having an extra entry in a highly contested market segment doesn't just snatch sales off its own alternate model, it can ultimately deprive rival brands of sales too.

Flying in the face of this supposition are the Mitsubishi ASX and Outlander. The Outlander, possibly helped by a front-wheel drive offering to supplement the four-wheel drive models, sold more last month than during October 2009 (611 versus 599), despite the smaller ASX in the same showroom this year. It must be a Mitsubishi syndrome, because the new Challenger sells alongside the Pajero, which also picked up sales last month (719 versus 600).

The top ten companies in Australia for the year to date were: Toyota (173,867), Holden (111,125), Ford (80,221), Mazda (71,314), Hyundai (67,941), Mitsubishi (52,312), Nissan (51,852), Honda (34,608), Subaru (33,907) and Volkswagen (31,842). Only Honda has sold fewer cars for this period than during the same time last year.

The top ten vehicles for the month were: Holden Commodore (3787), Toyota HiLux (3001), Toyota Corolla (2803), Mazda3 (2556), Ford Falcon (2258), Hyundai i30 (2165), Holden Cruze (2135), Toyota Camry (1924), Nissan Navara (1810) and Mitsubishi Lancer (1752).

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