VFACTS November: Car industry set for all-time sales record

The Australian car industry is accelerating towards a record annual sales result of more than 1.2 million units with one month of frenzied trading left to run this year.

Reflecting long-overdue customer deliveries as chronic supply shortages finally ease, the 112,141 new-vehicle sales achieved across all brands in November marks another all-time monthly high – the sixth in the past seven months – and brings the industry’s year-to-date tally to 1.118 million.

That’s 70,880 units shy of the record 1.189 million sales set in the 2017 calendar year, meaning only an unforeseen blockage at Australian ports or some other supply chain disaster could prevent a new high-water mark being set this year.

The flood waters are expected to recede quickly, though, with leading car companies such as Toyota and Hyundai forecasting a return to pre-COVID levels – around the million mark – as customer orders taper off and demand eases amid ongoing inflationary pressures and tough economic conditions in general.

Some leading car-makers – Volkswagen, among them – are already back to discounting popular models in a bid to boost sales in December and return to their accustomed position among the top 10 brands.

And all eyes are on the Ford Ranger and Toyota HiLux as the nation’s two most popular vehicles slug it out over the next three weeks to see which ute takes the title of Australia’s Most Wanted in 2023.

HiLux has been the top-selling new vehicle in Australia for the past seven years, while Ford has never topped the charts with Ranger – only Falcon, the last time with the EF way back in 1995, when it racked up 81,366 sales against the Holden Commodore’s 80,452.

So far this year, the Ranger has found 55,589 buyers compared to HiLux’s 55,968, so only 379 units separate them after the Blue Oval’s Australian-developed ute led the market in November with 6301 sales to HiLux on 5901.

Another ute, the Isuzu D-MAX, rounded out the bestsellers’ podium last month with 3692 units, while the Tesla Model Y electric car took fourth (3151) and the Toyota Prado fifth (3090).

The Model Y’s result saw it return to the top of the table as the nation’s most popular SUV – the biggest-selling category in Australia, accounting for 56.1 per cent of all sales in 2023 YTD – and it’s now tantalisingly close to toppling the Toyota RAV4 for the calendar year.

A paltry 17 units separate the two mid-size SUVs – RAV4 leading 27,435 to Model Y 27,418 – so let’s see what transpires over the next few weeks as final ‘Santa runs’ to customers are made.

The dominant Toyota continued its resurgence last month with 21,002 sales (+4.5%), which still leaves it 8.8 per cent behind where it was in November 2022 but keeps it on track for 215,000-plus units for the full year – more than twice as many as its nearest competitor, Mazda.

The podium is set for the year, Mazda holding sway in second with a strong 8707 sales in November (+15.3%) – helped by the CX-5 (2256) in eighth position – while Ford maintained third position for the month (8165, +14.0%), and the year to date, thanks entirely to Ranger and the Everest spin-off.

Together, Ford’s ute/SUV pairing has accounted for 88.7 per cent of the company’s total sales this year, keeping the brand more than 7000 units clear of both Kia and Hyundai which are locked in battle for fourth.

Kia faltered again in November with 5757 sales (-5.8%), slipping to sixth for the month as Hyundai hit back on 8165 (+21.7%), taking fourth overall. There’s now just 241 units separating the two Korean brands on a year-to-date basis, Kia holding the narrow advantage with 70,537 to Hyundai’s 70,296. It’s another tight contest to watch over the coming weeks.

Outside the top five, Mitsubishi is set to hold down sixth for 2023 after a solid 6268 sales in November (+12.8%) – Outlander again strong (2381) in seventh position as a new-generation Triton ute prepares to boost the triple-diamond brand early next year – while MG is a confirmed seventh-placegetter for the year.

The leading Chinese brand found 5603 new homes last month (+1.9%), taking its year-to-date tally past 54,000 units as discounts on the MG ZS small SUV have proved critical in recent months (2047 in November, ninth overall).

Meanwhile, Tesla’s popular Chinese-built EVs have guaranteed it a top 10 placing in 2023, holding eighth for now, but with Subaru and Isuzu Ute closing in; there’s 2570 units separating eighth from 10th, but the unpredictable nature of shipping schedules this year could produce another twist in the tale.

Tesla was outside the top 10 in November (3939 +79.4%), sitting 11th, as was Subaru (3825 +3.4%) in 12th, while Isuzu Ute moved up to eighth (4853, +73.4%). In between were two other brands on the comeback trail – Nissan (4268, +148.9%) and Volkswagen (4004, +31.5%), both intent on reclaiming previously tightly-held top-10 positions next year.

There’s a chance VW will overtake Isuzu Ute come December 31 – the difference is down to 1146 units – but we’ll wait and see.

What’s not in dispute are the underlying trends in the marketplace – the sheer dominance of SUVs, an unwavering affection for 4x4 dual-cab utes, the unstoppable rise of EVs, the growth of China as a force in vehicle supply.

Australians bought 62,347 new SUVs last month, taking the YTD tally to 627,187 (+19.3%). We bought 24,683 utes, making it 225,905 for the year (+7.0%) – 9558 of these full-size American pick-up trucks.

We bought 8646 EVs, not as many as hybrid cars (9646) but taking the running total to 80,446 – up 184 per cent for the year, and rising.

China? We bought 18,036 Chinese-built cars in November, the total for the year now at 178,432 – a rise of 65 per cent and, if the upward trajectory continues, China could overtake Thailand (where most of our utes are built) to take second place – behind Japan – in the next few years.

In the immediate term, the car industry is celebrating this month’s great result, anticipating an annual record next month, yet bracing for a softer market next year.

“This [November] is an extraordinary result in what is now likely to be an extraordinary record-breaking year,” said FCAI chief executive Tony Weber.

“Another record-breaking month underscores the dynamic and competitive nature of Australia's automotive landscape, showcasing the wide array of choices available to consumers.

“As the challenges of the past year’s supply chain disruptions recede, consumers have greater access to a broad range of choices and increased accessibility in the market.

“The automotive sector remains a testament to the resilience and adaptability of both industry players and consumers alike.

“However, as cost-of-living pressures hit we may see a market cooling in the coming months, and we anticipate a more challenging 2024.”

Top 10 vehicles (November 2023):

Top 10 brands (2023 year to date):

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