What are Ford's post-Orion Falcon wagon options?

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The confirmation last week by Ford Australia President, Tom Gorman, that Ford will not walk away from the Falcon wagon's steady fleet market has raised more questions than answers.

To recap The Blue Oval boss' exact words:

"Our plan is to continue to sell Falcons and we're evaluating what the future looks like for us.

"When we launched Territory in 2004 a lot of people thought that would substitute heavily for Falcon wagon and it just didn't work out that way.

"As we've understood that customer, 99.9 per cent of the sales are fleet sales and it is very much a tool of trade product. So it is about cost of ownership; it heavily skews towards E-Gas; so that market is still a very good market for us. We plan to remain competitive there for some time."

Nowhere does Gorman commit Ford to a new Falcon wagon (more here). It is also significant that during this week's tour of Ford's heavily upgraded stamping plant and proving grounds there was not a wagon panel, nor development car in sight. This was in stark contrast to the sedan and ute pressings and disguised test vehicles on view.

So what is Ford likely to do? What are the carmaker's options?

First, there are several time frames that must be considered.

After 2010, any version of the Falcon still in production will need to have a heavily revised engine bay to accommodate the new US V6 engine that is set to replace the Australian inline six. It is now virtually a given that the new Orion sedan and ute will arrive in 2008 with this capability along with the latest front suspension design launched in the Territory.

The other deadline is the mid-2008 timing for Euro IV emissions compliance, with its transition clause that allows manufacturers an exemption to continue with a Euro III engine providing it is launched prior to July 2008 and is then replaced or withdrawn in 2010. Ford will almost certainly introduce several new but final versions of its inline six to satisfy this exemption then replace them with the new Euro IV-compliant V6 waiting in the wings ready for the 2010 drop dead date for Euro IV compliance. 

In Ford's case, there is also the anticipation that the new Ford Mondeo will be well and truly established by 2010, so that current supply issues which have prevented Ford Australia from launching a Ford Mondeo diesel wagon will have eased.

From whichever perspective you look at these timeframes, it makes little sense for Ford to spend big money on a Falcon wagon replacement.

If Ford chose this option, it would be relatively easy to upgrade the inline six-cylinder mechanicals to bring it in line with the Orion sedans and keep it alive until the new V6 arrives in 2010 and wait until then to drop the wagon. A few styling tweaks to differentiate it from the BA-BF, then link it to the Orion sedan might be all that is required to keep the exterior fresh over this timeframe.  

The other variation of this option is to spend additional funds to add the Orion sedan changes from the centre-pillar forward including the different front door aperture and door design, revised roofline and dash architecture, new V6 engine bay and the revised Territory-style front suspension.

This would also require some tweaks to the side panels and rear styling to ensure continuity of body crease lines and other styling changes.

This would be an extension of the current strategy where the BA front was grafted on the 1998 AU wagon rear in 2002. The big issue here is whether this huge boost in expenditure will generate any extra sales when the current BFII Falcon wagon will enjoy a captive market as a work vehicle whether it is changed or not.

Even if Ford is ultimately planning to do this, it is under no pressure to do it right now. It can wait until the 2010 introduction of the V6 engine before it has to face this scenario. This would give Broadmeadows the option to assess Holden's Sportwagon sales and whether the Falcon ‘work' wagon emphasis still has a future.  

This option and all its variations are consistent with Ford's assurance that it will not be building any new long wheelbase models. The fact that the current Falcon wagon order bank continues into February 2008 suggests that the wagon has already escaped the chop suffered by the Fairlane/LTD last week.

Holden's new Sportwagon will ensure that Ford's current work wagon approach will remain unrivalled.

Because the new Orion range is a year behind the VE Commodore, it is increasingly likely that Ford will not increase the new model's wheelbase and bulk to match the VE Commodore. The trend away from large cars was much more apparent during the Orion's later development timeframe than the VE's early gestation period.

The current Falcon sedan's wheelbase is 2829mm compared to the wagon's 2921mm. The base Commodore sedan's wheelbase was boosted to 2915mm in the VE generational change. The Sportwagon shares this dimension.

If it makes little sense for Ford to spend a huge amount of money to build a bigger, long-wheelbase Falcon to match the VE Commodore's increase in bulk in a declining large car segment, it makes even less  sense to spend further funds on an all-new wagon based on such a bigger sedan platform when this would effectively make the Falcon wagon a low roof variation of the Territory.

Keeping the wagon as it is, in its fundamental leaf spring, live rear axle format would appear critical to its future success.

Whichever of the above scenarios Ford adopts for its next wagon model, it is safe to assume that it will not be part of the initial Orion launch.

Our bet is that any wagon revisions will be held over until after the new Falcon sedan and utes have been launched and just in time to comply with the latest Euro IV exemptions before July 2008.

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