When good predictions go bad: Five predictions we made this decade

Over the last decade, a lot of change has occurred across the automotive landscape -- from the rise of electric, the fall of the sedan and SUV-fication of every single car brand. The carsales editorial team have made some educated guesses on the future of the automotive landscape over the years, so we thought it would be fun to take a dive back into the archives and pull up five predictions.

No names… No pack drill… Some we got right, and others we got oh so wrong.

"The SUV segment now has one or more entrants from virtually every premium brand – including Porsche, Audi, Mercedes, BMW, Lexus, Infiniti and Cadillac. They’re all in there, making a tidy profit from flogging leather-lined all-terrainers in healthy volumes.

“Maserati is also set to enter the category with its upcoming Kubang, while Bentley CEO Wolfgang Dürheimer is very keen for the winged brand to barge into the fray with an all-terrainer of its own. Jag has a hankering for the wide outdoors and Aston Martin, too, is evaluating the genre

“However, one brand that I don’t think we’ll see fielding an SUV in the foreseeable future – be it concept or production reality – is Rolls-Royce. For now, it seems too much of a stretch."

Well, at the start of the decade, a Rolls-Royce SUV may have seemed improbable, but flash forward to 2019 and the Rolls-Royce Cullinan SUV is on its way to being the brand's top seller globally!

"Viable battery swap infrastructure is not going to happen anytime soon. In Australia, in California – anywhere. I've heard all the arguments from proponent BetterPlace but frankly I just can't see the concept gaining the critical mass of manufacturers and models it requires to really work.

“That doesn't mean that we won't see electric vehicle infrastructure in our cities and suburbs – charging spots will become visible in shopping centres and the like in 2012 and continue to grow in distribution – in time for the wider number of makes and EV models that we're set to see.

“Battery swap shenanigans aside, electric cars are here to stay and will soon become a part of the landscape – of that I have no doubt. Once you've driven one – even for a short time – much of the doubt we all harbour regarding their viability will be assuaged."

Turns out we were right on both fronts.

In 2011 BetterPlace was charging ahead with promises of an electric future with charging networks and battery swap stations across the world. Unfortunately, this all came crashing down in 2013 when the company filed for bankruptcy.

Since then, battery swap has been relatively low key, if not off the agenda completely. Electric cars on the other hand are now at a point where brands will soon need to be offering multiple viable models to be considered mainstream.

"Racing that reflects the real automotive state of play. There’s nearly 60 brands Down Under and at least 20 of them are vibrant, growing brands that have some sort of motorsport heritage. Yet we can’t get more than a handful onto the track. V8 Supercars presents some great racing, but look at the British Touring Car Championship (BTCC)... Ten brands in 2013 and more expected in 2014."

In the mid twenty-teens we were wondering when an entertaining and multi-brand touring car championship might come to fruition. In 2019, that idea come through via the TCR Australia championship. While Supercars have gone back to two makes, TCR Australia in its inaugural year had a field of brands – all but one mainstream.

"Lamborghini has committed to developing a SUV, the Urus, but something tells me we won't see a high-riding Ferrari SUV in 2014. Or perhaps for the rest of the decade. Or ever. Is this a good thing? For the integrity of the Italian brand, most definitely."

To be fair, this prediction on Ferrari not delivering an SUV to market by the end of the decade is correct. The prancing horse brand has flip-flopped many times throughout the years on whether or not they would ever consider an SUV. Now the Ferrari Purosangue crossover vehicle will hit the streets in 2022. We will wait with bated breath on this one...

"To suggest Holden could outsell Toyota in Australia within six years stretches credibility to the limit. Toyota cops a bagging for 'whitegoods' products, but can Holden comprehensively match it? Not at present.

“The only current ace in Holden's hand is the locally-manufactured Commodore. Opel products in the pipeline will be too 'niche'. Forget overtaking Toyota by 2020, Holden should look to stay ahead of Mitsubishi in the top 10.”

“But wait, there's more. Where are Mazda and Hyundai in all this? The two importers in third and fourth position for sales (or vice-versa, depending on the day) are around 7000 units behind Holden for the year to date. Both brands have been strong competitors in the VFACTS top 10 for years."

If you've been on our site over the last month, you would be appraised of Holden’s current sales situation. Five years ago, the lion brand was reaching for the top but with the latest new car sales figures come through, it is falling out of the top 10.