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Carsales Staff11 Dec 2007
NEWS

Where the bloody Hell have you been?

Door's open, beer's on ice, grab a slice of the pie on your way through. Otto von Wilhelmsen welcomes the return of the fair-weather car brands

Multiculturalism may be on the outer among social and political commentators, but it is alive and well within the car industry.

Consider the past decade. Our population speared past 20 million, and without for a minute dismissing the recent rush from the UK, most new migrants don't have English as a home language.

So it is no surprise that the growing new car market, now pushing past one million units for the first time as you read these words, is more diverse than ever before. In fact in the past decade, we have welcomed the return of many brands to our shores, not to mention the emergence of brands never previously represented here, and some all-new brands.

Now, it seems there's a new rush on. A few weeks ago, one of the oldest brands, and longest absent returned. No, we're not talking about Cadillac -- you'll have to wait on a little while to see them. Rather, we're talking Skoda, the latest in a line of Jonnie-come-back-lately brands which have rediscovered a love of Australia (Fiat and Dodge are others).

The mix of too much money, a loosening of the straight-laced Anglo self-image of Australian consumers (thanks to the growing racial mix) and improved product and back-up means more and more consumers are looking outside the gang of four local producers.

Year-on-year, local manufacturers' sales have slipped 0.4 per cent (or 704 units) compared with 2006, but imports grew by 11.3 per cent, according to industry statistician, VFACTS. Undeniably that means the local guys aren't making the right cars for the public's taste anymore. They account for just under 20 per cent of the market now, while they had 37 per cent a decade ago.

Locally manufactured vehicles sold in Australia will just scramble over the 200,000 mark in 2007, but in 1997 it was closer to 270,000. A third of the loss has been from the switch from locally-made to imported Toyota Corollas -- the rest has been down to large cars selling less well. Indeed, they have been selling significantly less well than the figures suggest, given the Ford Territory has won about 16,000 customers so far this year (some would have been Falcon/Commodore converts).

Another startling statistic: in 1997, large locally made passenger cars accounted for 42.4 per cent of the total passenger market. This year-to-date, large locally made cars account for only 28.7 per cent of passenger sales.

Before you rush off an email reminding me about the market growth, total passenger vehicle sales (excluding SUVs, LCVs, etc) are only 585,297 year-to-date 2007, compared with 490,745 for the first 11 months of 1997.

This highlights the huge growth of the SUV sector (of which Territory has only 8.8 per cent) because LCV sales have grown only 10 per cent between Jan-Nov 1997 and Jan-Nov 2007.

It's not just the SUVs or the price of petrol pushing the local makers out of the market. Generational change, and those economically active migrants are partly to blame. Few new migrants would be familiar with the concept or heritage of six-cylinder rear-drive family transport, even if they'd had their own cars to drive in their home countries.

And the huge increase in the interior space of 'medium' and 'small' cars to a large extent means you can get by with three across the back for short trips anyway.

Ironically, Holden is selling more V8-powered cars and utes year-on-year and they probably account for a far greater overall proportion of locally-made sales too. There's the rub -- they shouldn't be; but in contrast to the V8s, the bread and butter V6 sedan isn't pulling its weight. A market in ultimate decline? No reason to suspect not.

And so to our new Czech mate. Welcome back, even if you are disguised as a Volkswagen, with the motor at the other end, and indelibly marked with Wolfsburg style durability and reliability.

The big task for Skoda is to reinvent its brand in the minds of Australians new and old. It's a job made easier and more difficult at the same time by the rampant success of the Volkswagen brand here in the past two years. Question is, if you want a VW, why wouldn't you buy one -- instead of the ersatz version? If the advertising is to be believed, VWs aren't as expensive as they look.

So to make Skoda a success in Australia you'd need to spend heavy on building the brand, not just models in the sand. As an aside, have you noticed how in the Skoda TV ad they create the interior of the car, yet when the job's done, the sandcastle is just a shell of the exterior? Maybe it's a subtle message I'm just not receiving, Houston.

But back to our multicultural car industry.

The Japanese transplants in Thailand are booming, slipping a massive 142,755 vehicles up the beaches this year alone, 49.5 per cent more than the same period last year, and gaining fast on the local manufacturer's total sales. Who says bilateral trade arrangements don't work?

Similarly, sales of US sourced cars have grown 41 per cent in the past year, thanks to new guys Dodge and Hummer and upbeat Chrysler.

Our automotive ties with Thailand are now significantly stronger than with South Korea. The Koreans, though up 10 per cent (to 97,555 YTD), have only just eclipsed last year's Thailand total in the first 11 months.

Japan is still our biggest source of metal, with 339,000 units supplied (0.6 per cent up on 2006). Behind them come Thailand, Korea and then Germany, which has overtaken South Africa as the fourth biggest foreign supplier (38,124 vs 32,056), with Spain a fair way off them both.

Skoda, Dodge and Fiat, as relative mass-market brands, should learn from Peugeot's experience (rather than Renault's!!!) -- a slow steady burn not an early flourish is the way to go. Peugeot's development since a new importer breathed life into the limp French brand six years ago is a case in point -- now they're looking at close to 9000 sales for the year. Citroen too has been coming along on the back of diverse product and diesel.

Ssangyong, like Proton is finding the going heavy. Being cheap is no guarantee of success. We're an aspirational bunch now -- we like flash, not bargain basement, just look at Chrysler's 300 C.

And with Hummer humming along, maybe the time is right to welcome back the king of bling, the baby-boomers' retirement stalwart: Cadillac. But not in pink, eh, boys?

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Written byCarsales Staff
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