Where to for Holden and Commodore?

The bad news keeps coming for Holden.

First there was the unfortunate timing of GM’s announcement it will offload Opel/Vauxhall – the German car-maker that will supply Holden’s 2018 Commodore – on the eve of its donor model’s debut at the Geneva motor show in March.

Then late last week Opel’s new owner, France’s PSA Peugeot Citroen, confirmed Holden’s first imported Commodore will have a maximum lifespan of just six years as it fast-tracks the transition from GM platforms to its own EMP2 chassis architectures by 2024.

Now, some reports say PSA will kill off Opel’s GM E2-based Insignia – the ZB Commodore’s twin -- and migrate it across to the EMP2 platform as early as 2021.

That raises the obvious prospect – even before it’s launched in February – that Holden’s new flagship sedan, wagon and crossover could be axed within four years.

Because PSA is not part of General Motors, any future EMP-based Opel Insignia is unlikely to be sold here as a Commodore, especially since PSA has its own plans to export Opel models globally from 2018.

That’s almost certain to include Australia, where the Opel brand was established by GM in 2012 and axed less than 12 months later, given PSA says it plans to establish Opel (or more likely Vauxhall, which has a longer history here than Opel) in 22 new markets by 2022.

As part of its plan to return Opel/Vauxhall to profitability for the first time in 15 years, dubbed ‘PACE!’, PSA aims to make the company “profitable, electric and global” and for its overseas markets to account for 10 per cent of sales by 2025.

New Insignia production commenced in April and PSA has since backed Opel’s deal to supply Holden with both Commodore and Astra models.

That guarantees the supply of both models to Holden until they transition to PSA platforms, but how long PSA will honour the transaction prices agreed in Holden’s export deal with the loss-making Opel remains to be seen.

Any cost increases by PSA will put pressure on Holden’s business case for both models and impact their profitability and/or competitiveness in the Aussie market.

Beyond that, Holden appears to have limited options to replace the Astra and Commodore with GM models – if there is indeed another new Commodore after next year’s.

Sales of mainstream mid-size cars are in decline globally but the market could still be big enough in China and North America for Holden to have the option of importing GM models from those markets next decade.

Holden has already discontinued its slow-selling Malibu sedan, a rebadged Chevrolet, but its ninth-generation replacement – produced in the US, Korea and China since 2015 -- could return Down Under.

That would see it join other rebadged Chevrolet models in the Holden line-up, including the upcoming US-built Equinox and Acadia SUVs.

And while the Trailblazer off-roader and the Colorado ute on which it’s based will continue to come from Thailand, Holden is unlikely to have access to the premium European SUV coming from Opel, development of which had been frozen as part of PSA's takeover, or any other electrified model it is planning under PSA ownership.

The Astra hatch, meantime, would most likely become a rebadged Cruze hatch, just as the Astra sedan is a rebadged Cruze sedan from Korea, from which Holden already imports the Spark micro-hatch, Trax small SUV and Barina light hatch.

Alternatively, China’s Buick Regal – which is closely related to the E2-based Malibu, Insignia and Commodore -- could be imported here, although like the Malibu it would not be available in V6, diesel, wagon, crossover or rear-wheel drive forms (let alone a ute version).

Of course, this is assuming the front/all-wheel drive mid-size ZB Commodore is replaced at all and, based on the most optimistic sales estimates, that seems a long shot.

Australia’s top-selling medium car after Toyota’s fleet-dominated Camry is the Mazda6, which will struggle to find more than 3500 buyers this year – a far cry from the 57,000-plus Commodores Holden sold just a decade ago in 2007, when it was still Australia’s top-selling car.

It’s not all bad news for Holden, which should still deliver on its promise to release 24 new or upgraded models between 2015 and 2020, almost certainly including rear-drive V8-powered Camaro and Corvette sports coupes.

Holden continues to test a range of Cadillac models in Australia including the mid-size, rear-drive ATS luxury sedan, and remains upbeat about a future beyond Australian manufacturing and Opel.

“We do not discuss future products, but we continue to develop our future product plans beyond the current generation of vehicles,” it said in a statement.

“Holden is committed to bringing the best vehicles to Australia and New Zealand with GM’s support. We are excited about the upcoming launch of the next-generation Commodore.

“Together with our portfolio of SUVs, crossovers and small cars, the new Commodore is part of the strongest and most comprehensive portfolio in Holden’s history.”