Why the new Toyota Prado is in trouble

Comment

The Toyota Prado has been Australia’s best-selling large SUV for the past eight years, but I reckon it’s got Buckley’s chance of remaining so for another eight years.

Aussies’ love affair with the fourth-generation Toyota Prado – which was launched in 2009 yet still commands delivery wait times of more than a year – has been something unique, a truly special relationship.

Rarely does a model attract such strong demand after 14 years on the market, but there are obvious reasons for the current Prado’s success Down Under.

No, the Prado isn’t the only large, practical seven-seat SUV based on a robust ladder frame and equipped with a proper 4x4 system with low range.

But it is the only big off-road wagon available with dual fuel tanks totalling 150 litres – enough to provide a circa-1500km range for the Big Lap, or to cross the Simpson without carrying extra diesel.

Being backed by the country’s biggest dealer network has also helped the Prado set multiple sales records and foster the sort of customer loyalty that most auto brands can only dream of.

But the new-generation 250 Series Toyota Prado, or LandCruiser as it’ll be known in North America, will face gale-force headwinds when it arrives Down Under in mid-2024.

The first of them is pricing, which is expected to increase significantly over the current Prado’s price range of $62,830 to $87,468.

Given US pricing will start at around $US55,000, which equates to about $A85,000, top-spec models could be dizzyingly expensive – especially when you add genuine accessories and aftermarket parts.

No doubt Toyota Australia will be keen to keep pricing under that of the LandCruiser ($94,301-$143,101) to prevent buyer substitution, but the new 250 Series Prado will likely be priced much closer to the 300 Series, as well as being similar in size and footprint.

Australian pricing won’t be announced until the fifth-generation Prado’s local launch by mid-2024, but with Toyota Australia no longer price-protecting existing customer backorders, some buyers waiting patiently in the queue for the existing model may cancel their orders or instead opt for the 300 Series if price hikes are substantial.

Price is becoming the most important factor for many new-vehicle buyers amid rising living costs, as many Chinese brands are proving. That will be a concern for Toyota as another challenger from the East is being readied in the form the big new GWM Tank 500, which could be priced between $55,000 and $75,000.

Toyota has also adopted a top-hinged tailgate for the new Prado, at least on the versions we’ve seen so far, which means the spare tyre will be slung under the rear of the vehicle, reducing fuel capacity from the current model’s 150 litres (via dual fuel tanks) to perhaps 130 litres like the V6-powered LandCruiser, negating one of its unique selling propositions.

And unlike the 300 Series, the 2024 Prado won’t bring a new engine and instead will soldier on with the same four-cylinder 2.8-litre turbo-diesel – albeit with 48-volt mild-hybrid electrification – that landed Toyota in a multi-million-dollar class action due to DPF issues.

The next Prado’s blocky new Americanised exterior design appears to be winner with many potential buyers, but a lot of rusted-on Toyota loyalists are also fairly conservative and the radical departure from the current model’s long-running design could turn some buyers off.

The all-new 2024 Toyota Prado also faces challenges outside its control as well.

The Prado’s dominance of the large SUV segment has this year been challenged by the Isuzu MU-X – in part due to slower supplies – which in now within striking distance, while the Ford Everest is also gaining ground rapidly thanks to massive demand for its class-leading V6 diesel.

A huge backlog of orders and a long wait list may not be enough to retain the Prado’s sales lead in 2023, and Australian supplies of its replacement will be limited by US demand – which will likely be substantial – given the 250 Series will be produced exclusively at Toyota’s Tahara and Hino plants in Japan.

Perhaps the most crucial thing for Toyota will be keeping customers happy by ensuring they don’t have to wait 12 or 18 months for delivery of their new vehicle.

The last time the Prado was beaten in Australia’s large SUV sales race was 2014, when the Jeep Grand Cherokee outsold it by a few hundred units. But there’s a scandalous story behind that feat, involving a court case, a luxury motor yacht and the alleged misappropriation of “more than $30 million” .

The new Toyota Prado may well retain its sales crown in 2024 and beyond, but for all these reasons I just don’t see it happening.