Falcon deadline still to be set

Don't tell anybody, but any decision on the future of the Falcon is at least 18 months away. Even when the decision is made, Ford's not going to be letting its competitors know of its future product plans four years in advance. That means the media and the buying public won't find out any time soon either. So expect to know more about the replacement for the current Falcon platform around about... five years from now?

You may have read a story published by another media outlet that Ford will make that decision near the end of next year, concerning the Falcon for the latter half of the next decade. That is broadly in line with remarks made by Ford Australia President, Marin Burela, subsequent to the official opening ceremony for the new ACART facility two days ago (more here), although readers could be forgiven for thinking Ford's about to slam the door shut on the Falcon. That's not happening -- not yet, anyway.

Just to set the record straight, Burela had this to say about the Falcon: "We tend to operate our cycles on about a six-year cycle on all of our car lines and we don't have to make any cycle plan, product-specific decisions -- specifically when it comes to the large car -- until about the end of 2010, 2011."

The FG Falcon was only released last year, so it will continue to retail in one form or another until about 2014, based on Burela's six-year cycle.

In the current volatile market and with future fuel prices an unknown quantity, Ford is happy to leave that decision to the latest possible moment. That's the context behind Burela's remarks. Ford has breathing space before they have to make a decision.

The 'One Ford' product harmonisation program that seems to sound the death knell for the Falcon is not the harsh mistress that some believe.

While Burela stated explicitly that 'One Ford' was "important" to Ford Australia, Ford has said in the past that the harmonisation program allows regional arms of the company enough wriggle room to suit the purposes of specific markets.

The Carsales Network confirmed this point with Ford Australia's Communications Manager, Sinead McAlary, earlier today.

"From our point of view, 'One Ford' is the best strategy for our global company, but the vehicles we offer have to make sense in each market as well," McAlary explained.

The harmonisation strategy allows enough latitude for Ford's regional arms to tailor products to suit the local market -- and the Falcon is one of those potential exceptions to the 'One Ford' rule.

'One Ford' is already being practised by Ford Australia (the Fiesta being the prime example and the locally-manufactured Focus will be another, as will the T6 project Ranger). 'One Ford' can impinge on the Falcon program in a variety of ways, not just total replacement of the nameplate and/or platform, says McAlary.

"There are a range of things that can be done. ['One Ford'] doesn't mean that we're not going to have a Falcon for Australia. It might mean that we have more global development as part of it, or we use more global parts as part of it -- all sorts of different things. There are lots of layers to projects like this."

Far from playing down the importance of rear-wheel drive in the Falcon, as suggested by other media, Burela says that he actually doesn't know whether rear-wheel drive is important to Falcon buyers or not. It might be very important, but Ford is yet to determine that. Market research has not been undertaken -- contrary to the assertion from other media.

McAlary explained that the research to be carried out will target current private Falcon owners and fleet Falcon owners for their thoughts on the car's future direction. Ford is, according to McAlary, very sensitive to the emotional investment that goes along with a private buyer's decision to purchase the Falcon, so the research is of paramount importance to Ford as a guide to what large-car buyers will want next decade.

"We're not quite sure that we ourselves understand the Australian consumers' needs when it comes to 'rear-wheel/front-wheel'," Burela explained two days ago.

"As people move into different lifestyle vehicles, they're actually moving into all-wheel drive... they're not necessarily saying they want rear-wheel drive."

"Are we able to go out there and give the Australian consumer an all-new Falcon when the time comes -- and what does that all-new Falcon have to provide?" Burela asked rhetorically.

This situation was reaffirmed by McAlary when the Carsales Network spoke to her today.

"There was a statement in [other media] that we've conducted a lot of research and that customers are telling us that rear-wheel drive is not important. That's actually not the case. What Marin was saying was that we don't know [whether] customers think it's important or not -- and we have to investigate that yet."

It's important to note that Ford only needs to make a decision as soon as 2011 on the basis that the company will go it alone on the development of a new Falcon platform for the years beyond 2014. If the company were committed to selling a Falcon-badged Taurus or some other alternative, the engineering required would be far less and the development time could be correspondingly shorter, meaning Ford could leave that decision to an even later date than 2011.

The very fact that Ford is announcing that it will make a decision in or around 2011 suggests that the company is already allowing enough time from that date to develop an altogether new platform. That of course doesn't necessarily mean that a new, uniquely Australian Falcon will happen -- just that Ford is definitely allowing development time post-decision for that possibility. And that interim period also leaves time for Ford Australia to develop a global platform with volume export potential, but it could also provide a buffer for another platform being developed elsewhere to be 'Australianised'. It's all about "layers", to use McAlary's word for it.

McAlary also discussed the issue of the global rear-wheel drive platform. This program seeks to merge different Ford products worldwide (the Falcon/Territory in Australia and the Mustang in the US, for examples) on the same basic platform. Derrick Kuzak is Ford's Vice President of Global Product Development and is the man who has his finger on the trigger where new product development programs are concerned. He has been asked repeatedly about this specific global platform development. There's a fine distinction between Kuzak's announcement that the program was postponed and the assertion in the article that it had been "officially halted".

"What's actually happened with that is that came out of the Detroit motor show," says McAlary. "What Derrick said is that project has been postponed. At a time when the company's having to concentrate on top priorities, that is not on the list of top priorities at the moment -- so that project is on hold."

The project may be on hold, but the Mustang still needs a rear-wheel drive platform if it's to continue... and tell us again, from whence came the platform for the original Mustang of 1964?

Talk of the Falcon's future raises more questions than it answers. What would happen to Territory for example? How about Euro 5 compliance for the inline six? What about alternative fuel and power sources and how they would be integrated in a traditional package like the Falcon? Can the Falcon be built in more versatile variants to enhance its market appeal -- a high-roof 'S-Max' type of Falcon wagon for example, or a long-wheelbase dual-cab ute for another. After all, it's not like Ford hasn't looked at alternative 'top hats' for the Falcon platform in the past.

Set your alarm for half-past 2013…

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