Front-drive fate for Ford Falcon?

The history of Holden versus Ford rivalry is set to start a new chapter by the end of the decade as the Commodore and Falcon look likely to go in separate directions.

A senior Ford executive at the Detroit motor show has told Australian journalists overnight it was likely the next generation Falcon, due by 2017, will be a front-drive car, like the Toyota Camry.

Less than 24 hours earlier, the boss of Holden Mike Devereux repeated Holden's intentions for the Commodore to continue as a rear-drive sedan beyond 2020.

When a small group of Australian journalists asked Ford's global design chief, J Mays if the next Falcon would be rear-drive, he said: "Don't hold your breath."

Minutes later, unaware of Mays' comments, another group of Australian journalists asked the global boss of Ford, Alan Mulally, if there was any update on the plans for the 2017 replacement for the Falcon -- given Holden's announcement about taking its rear-drive formula beyond 2020.

"We love the Falcon," Mulally said. "We have nothing new to address today other than we love serving the Australian customer. We have nothing to report."

When quizzed further, he added: "I have never met more relentless people than the Australians," referring to the media, and was whisked away by his PR minder.

Ford has steadfastly refused to comment on the future of the Falcon since the media began asking questions a few years ago in the face of dwindling sales. Last year the Falcon recorded the weakest sales in the 50-year history of the nameplate, dipping below 30,000 for the first time ever.

If the factory is to close, Ford would not want to announce it until the last minute so as to not further weaken sales of the Falcon. When the future of Mitsubishi's Adelaide factory was cast in doubt, sales of its big six-cylinder sedan plummeted.

Mays' revelation places a new cloud over the future of Broadmeadows as a car- making facility because it means the Falcon and Territory will likely be replaced by the next generation Taurus and Explorer.

It would be uneconomical for Ford to make those models in Australia in the tens of thousands when Ford can make them in the hundreds of thousands in North America -- and export them to Australia free of any import tariffs under the Free Trade Agreement with North America.

The Carsales Network has been told by Ford officials in Detroit that all four vehicles – Falcon/Territory and Taurus/Explorer – will be due for replacement by 2016 and 2017, and that is the same timeframe that Ford is expected to introduce a new platform for such vehicles.

Mulally has been on record many times saying that Ford will put an end to model duplication globally. The Falcon is similar in size and philosophy to Taurus, and the Territory is similar in size and philosophy to the Explorer.

The problem for Broadmeadows is that it produced about 45,000 cars last year -- including Falcon sedan, wagon and ute and the Territory softroader -- while the industry regards 100,000 vehicles per annum as a break-even point for a car factory. Ford says it has factories around the world that make fewer vehicles each year than Australia -- but has so far declined to nominate them.

Ford has already announced that a small car is not viable at Broadmeadows -- it axed plans to build the Focus locally -- so it is difficult to see what car could replace the Falcon and Territory.

If Ford closed the Broadmeadows factory it would still retain its design and engineering centre and employees. Ford Australia led the development of the new generation Ranger pick-up that will be sold in 180 countries -- but made in Thailand.

Ford Australia will still likely be involved in the Falcon replacement, either with the design or development -- or both. Mays said that Ford Australia had entered a global design competition with other Ford design studios on the shape of the next Falcon.

The company was considering design submissions from Australia, the UK, Cologne and North America.

A decision on the next generation Falcon for 2017 is due in the next six months -- the same deadline for the Holden Commodore.

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