Hit for six

Comment

Aussies have been hit for six twice in recent times: first the Poms snuck off with The Ashes, then the price of petrol skyrocketed. Question is, will we do the hat trick? Will interest rates go up again in November, forcing more folk to reconsider buying a new car?

Holden and Toyota are hoping that instead of being hit for six, that their sixes are a hit.

Coming soon to a Toyota corner store near you is Toyota's boldest bid yet to convince Aussie buyers it has the goods to make the grade in the big six market.

But not only does Toyota have to contend with deep-seated indifference to front-wheel drive six-cylinder cars (with the grace of the Court, the prosecution tenders Mitsubishi's 380 as exhibit A, and a decade’s sales figures for previous six-pot Camrys and, ahem -- sotto voce -- Avalon as Exhibit B), but also the Royal family of six-cylinders from Elizabeth.

The new VE Commodores have had their first month on sale, and judging by the figures, every one of the cars produced for sale in September fled the Holden dealer network. And so they should. After investing a billion dollars, Holden can't allow fuel consumption scare tactics to frighten punters away.

In October, the true strength of the Holden marketing avalanche will be judged. Of course, Holden has primed the pump with fleets ready and willing to be the first to snare the new generation Commodore.

But once the keen and eager are fed, the more wary will be tackled. On the plus side, fuel prices are slowly declining, though still unstable, and with high levels of variability, from one of the week to the next. As the petrol price peaks become flatter, Holden has more chance to reverse its massive sales decline in the six-cylinder market.

The fly in the ointment is Toyota's Aurion. Not yet on sale, but almost. And this time it really does look like a convincing effort.

And you can bet that come the end of the year, Holden and Toyota will be trumpeting the success of their local manufacturing efforts. Reason is, irrespective of how many cars they sell to Aussies, it’s the number they build that really counts.

Exports of Aussie sixes (big sixes or not) are running at very high rates. Holden and Toyota can afford a little slippage in the local market so long as the Middle East markets remain strong. Just because we’re paying $1.40 a litre, doesn't mean the Saudis are.

For both Holden and Toyota, the local marketing muscle is aimed at winning the hearts of middle Australia. Toyota now has the momentum to turn the flames up under Holden and Ford, with a near 50,000 unit sales lead over Holden alone.

Consider too, Toyota has a relatively even brand strength across its major sales lines: Yaris (nee Echo), Corolla, Camry, Rav4, Prado and LandCruiser. Meantime, Holden has suffered some negative comment regarding the replacement of its European (and thus in the minds of pundits "quality") sourced four-cylinder cars with product from GM Daewoo (in South Korea).

Subjectively, the slip off the 'cool' scale, the reduction in perception of sophistication, engineering prowess and desirability is replaced with more drab values of affordability and utility. Superficially, society appears to be trading 'down home' values for the thin veneer of luxury, given the boom in high-end lifestyle accoutrements, but there's an argument that says Aussies still like a Value For Money offer and seize the opportunity when presented.

Maybe that's why Holden sales of its GM Daewoo product have held up reasonably well. Presumably they're making good money per unit (otherwise why bother?), and presumably this is why Toyota can barely supply enough Corolla/Camry and Yaris product to the market.

Interestingly, the German brand best associated with building VFM cars, Volkswagen is steaming ahead like never before, while Renault (one of Europe's shining near-luxury mainstream stars) is all but extinct in Australia.

In September VW blitzed the market, with 2123 sales, which on a monthly basis would have ranked it 10th in brand sales. Year to date, VW sales are up 39 per cent at 15,737.

Renault sold 253 vehicles in September (and only 2175 YTD -- less than VW did in September alone, and down 12.8 per cent YTD) and half of those were commercials. VW sold 1759 passenger cars to Renault’s 128 -- and 364 commercial to La Regie's 125.

VW’s top-heavy reliance on Golf may also pale as the new Jetta and Passat gain traction, for the first time giving VW a more stable line up. Renault can't get the new Clio fast enough, but the Megane can't take a trick beyond the specialist Sport models.

Oh, and remember the Laguna? When was the last time you saw one on the road?

VW's success could also be linked to success with diesel, as well as being able to present a suitably acceptable option for former big six buyers trading down to a four but without wanting to be seen driving mass market models.

Even VW's advertising is at pains to point out the cars only look expensive.

Renault, however, is alone in suffering a dramatic slip in sales. Its Gallic partners have leapt ahead in 2006, with Citroen selling 2609 so far this year, up 18.4 per cent (and registering 333 sales in September) and Peugeot up to 6273 or a 25.5 per cent increase (with 782 sales in September).

It has taken time and a succession of good models for Citroen to reach its critical mass. Not so long ago the Berlingo van was its best seller, but then came the C5, then the C3 and now the C4. Citroen has momentum. Peugeot's had a stronger line-up for longer, hence its greater sales.

Can you believe the 206 is eight years young (and now surely the longest-lived passenger model on sale in Australia)? Yet despite imminence of the 207 replacement, the company here has no plans to retire the 206, just pare it back to make space for the 207.

That's just like Holden did with the Polish-built Astra before the European one arrived. That policy was so successful the Polish Astra had to be replaced (enter the Daewoo Lacetti's new incarnation, The Holden Viva).

So all eyes will be on Holden's sales figures in October. The Australian International Motor Show might be the public's first chance to see the new VE (and GM Daewoo-sourced) range up close. It will be interesting to hear the feedback from the show staff.

Our money would be on fuel economy being the first question that gets asked at Holden, Ford, Toyota and Mitsubishi stands. Followed up by: "Does this car come in diesel?"