Holden continues to bleed

Holden will rely on its imported SUVs and Colorado ute to drag it back from its worst annual sales result in decades.

As the numbers for new cars purchased by Aussies roll in for 2018, the figure that stands out is Holden's 60,751 new vehicle sales.

It sounds like a decent number but it represents a decline of 32 per cent on the 2017 sales result of 90,306.

If this trend continues, the lion brand that can trace its car-making history back to 1948 in Australia could face a bleak future.

GM Holden's rusted-on buyers have deserted the Commodore, which is now imported from Germany where it is built by subsidiary PSA.

Meanwhile Holden’s parent company and North America's biggest car-maker, General Motors, plans to cull a bunch of model lines and shut down more than a dozen factories worldwide by the end of 2019.

Holden was pummeled in a recent dealer survey and as the 2018 sales figures show, Aussie buyers are more interested in Toyota, Mazda and Hyundai cars – currently the top-selling brands in Australia.

Back in 2002 Holden was Australia's top-selling car brand and Commodore was king, but since 2003 Toyota has reigned supreme as Holden slid down the sales charts to where it is today, in sixth place.

Holden has no vehicles in the top 10 best-sellers list and 2018 was the first time in 21-years that Ford has sold more vehicles than Holden.

Top selling car brands in 2018

Toyota:               217,061
Mazda:                111,280
Hyundai              94,187
Mitsubishi           84,944
Ford:                   69,081
Holden:               60,751
Kia:                     58,815
Nissan:               57,699
Volkswagen       56,620
Honda:               51,525

Despite the doom and gloom, some industry sources insist Holden is on the right track, and point to companies such as Mitsubishi and Nissan that went through tough times and made unpopular choices – but eventually bounced back.

Ross Booth, general manager of Australian car pricing authority RedBook.com.au, says Holden can bounce back.

"Holden can not only survive but can prosper - albeit with a much lower market share than the halcyon days, but certainly top five.

"Holden just need to provide vehicles that people want to buy at a competitive cost of ownership. Holden introduced its five-year warranty mid-2018, have good capped-price servicing and a good dealer network so they have the basics right. A lot rests with their future product cycles," says Booth.

Holden has been through a round of job cuts in 2018 and those close to the company insist the right people are in the right positions to get Holden firing on all cylinders.

Holden has hired former Toyota Australia chief Dave Buttner to fix the company’s woes and although the brand declined to comment on the continuing sales slump, a Holden spokesperson stated there is light at the end of the tunnel.

"Holden has its best and most comprehensive vehicle portfolio ever, including a highly competitive range of SUVs from GM’s global operations.

"We are making progress and remodeling the company to put the emphasis where the market is and that is around SUVs and utes. With the launch of Acadia we now have the portfolio that we need to tackle this part of the market," said the Holden spokesperson.

So can SUVs and utes save Holden?

"The ute 'work and play' market, in particular dual cabs, is continuing to grow in relevance and the big three of Ford Ranger, Toyota Hilux and Mitsubishi Triton continue to improve their market dominance," observes Booth.

"The current Colorado sales of 18,301 for 2018 is less than the closely-related Isuzu D-Max and with Holden going in a different direction in the near future, it is extremely important Holden gets this vehicle right."

While the Holden Colorado ute sold about 18,000 units in 2018, making it the brand's best-selling model, the Holden Astra was next with a smidge under 10,000 units. The Holden Commodore found just over 9000 buyers – some of which are police fleet buyers – but the most popular SUV was the Holden Trax, an ageing compact model, with just 5433 sales.

"The future for Holden lies with SUVs, with vehicles like the Equinox which is a great vehicle but hasn’t resonated yet with Australian buyers," declares Booth. "Do Australian buyers want an SUV from Holden, or prefer other trusted SUV models?"

The brand needs a medium SUV to ignite the imagination of Aussie car buyers and although the Equinox is a promising vehicle, initial sales figures suggest it's not the silver bullet.

Perhaps a rebadged version of the Chevrolet Blazer sitting between the Acadia and Equinox at a sharp price point would help?

Whatever the case, there's a lot of people hating on Holden at the moment and the recent 2018 sales data suggests the ill will is manifesting in showrooms.

Some of the buyer resentment comes from Holden's decision to continue the Commodore name, something Ford recently said it was "thrilled" to have avoided with Endura.

There's no doubt 2019 will be another tough year for Holden.

The question is, will the bleeding hurt the Holden brand? Booth say the forecasts suggest Holden will weather the storm.

"RedBook believes the decrease in sales will have minimal impact on the Holden brand. It is more about having relevant vehicles for the Australian market that consumers want to buy.

"Holden still has very high brand awareness in the Australian market. Historically any change in brand perceptions can take time to resonate with Australian consumers, who tend to be quite conservative with their choices, going with the tried and trusted sources.

"In the past this was the Holden Commodore, not any more.

"The impact of Holden sourcing vehicles from around the world and not having a readily identifiable vehicle DNA, such as Mazda or even Ford, may be a factor," Booth adds.

"However, at the end of the day it is about providing vehicles that are relevant to the Australian market in design, performance and specification for the right price."