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NEWS
Holden forecasting record market again
And VF Commodore is pulling its weightThe new car market in Australia is over 27,000 sales ahead of the same period last year, as measured from the end of September.
That strongly indicates another record year for the market, and the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries (FCAI) has estimated the final tally should amount to 1.136 million vehicles, based on currently seasonally-adjusted figures.
Holden also subscribes to that view, with Phil Brook, the company's Executive Director for Vehicle Sales, Service and Marketing, telling journalists earlier in the week that the market has been robust, other than a hiccup during September – the month the federal election was held.
"Year-to-date market, as at the end of last month, was up around three per cent, but September was actually quite soft; there was an election – you kind of expect that," Brook said during the presentation for the upgraded Colorado and Colorado 7.
"The market was down about two per cent in the official figures, but if you actually do some digging, underlying, the numbers were probably down more like five per cent.
"The fleet market was quite soft, but so too was private."
By announcing a change in the calculation of Fringe Benefits Tax for new cars in the lead-in to the election, the former Labor government effectively drove the electorate to hold off new car purchases until the government was ousted. The announcement inevitably led to an outcry from the FCAI and its members, as well as retailers and voters prior to the election.
"We're still calling a record market for 2013. We're at 1.14 million cars, which would be up about 22,000 units, or about two and a half per cent on last year. I think it's the fifth time the market has been over a million."
Curiously, the market is already over 27,000 sales ahead of where it was at the same time last year, which suggests that the final months of 2013 will see sales stagnate or even decline to the tune of about 5000 units, based on Brook's number. The growth in the market this year has been driven by the 'new' passenger vehicles, the Holden exec says.
"A lot of the growth has been in SUV... LCVs are actually booming [too]. What's interesting I think is that 4x4s are now the second-biggest segment in the market, behind small cars.
"Overall 4x4s are up about 13 per cent..."
Brook counts both one-tonne pick-ups and SUVs in among the '4x4s'. Since many of the commercial vehicles are dual-cab pick-ups that fulfil recreational and personal needs on weekends, they're the new 'family car' – combined with SUVs, of course.
It explains why passenger vehicle sales have slumped during 2013 – albeit by fewer than 1500 sales out of 422,740 for the year to date. SUVs have more than compensated, with sales up 20,352, and LCV sales are also ahead, by 7661 units. Of the passenger car segments that have declined this year, people movers and large and medium cars were all selling in small numbers than the same year to date period for 2012, but light cars have endured lower sales this year too. At 2289 fewer sales for this year so far, light cars may be losing out to small cars – which are increasingly affordable – and perhaps also the rising tide of tiny SUVs like the Holden Trax.
Holden's sales for the year to date have gone against the trend, settling at 81,904 for the year to date, versus 85,345 for the same period last year. The locally manufactured Commodore is nearly 4500 units behind its sales figure for this time last year. But there's little cause for concern, says Brook.
"Since we launched VF – basically mid-year – through quarter three, if we compare Holden volume quarter three this year with quarter three last year, we've picked up two percentage points in share, which is positive. VF is up about 15 per cent overall – quarter three last year versus quarter three this year. But what I think is really positive is that private sales are up 60 per cent, year on year for Commodore. The car's doing pretty well at the moment."
Brook's statement is supported by VFACTS figures for the Commodore in September. The locally-designed and manufactured large car sold 2532 units in September 2012 as the VE model, versus 2869 last month in VF form. That's a year-on-year increase of 337 units, or 13.3 per cent.
"[We're] really happy with how the car's going at the moment; well and truly back in the top five selling cars in the country for the last couple of months. So we're looking forward to a strong finish to the year with VF," Brook concluded.
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Written byKen Gratton
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