LEAFs everywhere?

If Nissan is correct with its prediction of 10 per cent electric vehicles on the road by 2020, it has a lot of selling to do. The company is saying it expects to sell "hundreds a year" in Australia but we've also heard figures of around 1500, meaning the LEAF would almost become a mainstream player in the small car segment.

"[That figure] is a non-fixed target," Nissan Australia spokesman Jeff Fisher told motoring.com.au. "We can expect sales in the hundreds; meaningful sales in the hundreds over the next year... A lot depends on how vigorously the fleets embrace it and how quickly infrastructure via third parties will develop," Fisher reasons. "We're waiting to see more progress on those other factors."

Mr Fisher admits the LEAF is not volume-driven but "the company knows where we have to be financially on it". Nissan, he says, is more interested in making a technological statement.

"It's about introducing technology in the market that we haven't seen for a hundred years or so," he said, with respect to previous EV endeavours in the early 1900s. "It's a completely new way of driving... completely new behavioural pattern.

"We really don't think it's fair to lump it in with Tiida or Micra in terms of simple sales with dealers. That's not what we're looking for; we're looking to move the needle and change customer and motoring behaviour with this... It has different jobs to do."

Obviously other electric vehicles will make up that 10 per cent, such as the Mitsubishi I-MiEV and upcoming Holden Volt and Renault Fluence EV models. In the latter case, Nissan and Renault stand to take early EV leadership via its cooperation while GM has the might of mass-production support. Nissan has two more EVs on the way, including a plug-in light commercial van.

The LEAF EV is due for release in local showrooms next month, priced at $51,500. Like Mitsubishi for the i-MiEV, Nissan was not assisted by the government with provision of incentives to buyers, such as reduced registration and/or parking costs, as in other markets.

Renault-Nissan chief Carlos Ghosn has always said the LEAF was designed to become an affordable, mainstream car. Back in 2009, Ghosn said the LEAF would be priced around the equivalent of a conventionally-engined hatch and not end up a niche product.

"We're going for mass market. Hybrids are not mass market; they represent less than two per cent, even after many years. We are positioning ourselves and saying electric vehicles will represent at least five per cent, and more reasonably it should represent 10 per cent."

The Renault Fluence ZE
is not due here until late 2012 but company spokeswoman Emily Ambrosy told motoring.com.au pricing would start under $40K. Its lower (than the likes of LEAF) start-up price is largely due to Renault's global ownership policy for the Fluence, which entails a lease program for the battery. Better Place is signed to supply batteries and infrastructure.

Ms Ambrosy says the Fluence EV has attracted strong interest from fleet buyers, though her company couldn't confirm anticipated volume. The benefit of Renault's ownership arrangement means the lease "takes risk away from the customer" with regard to the batteries' (the highest source of depreciation) care/maintenance.

Interested LEAF buyers have to qualify to make their order, in an effort to provide the same sort of support. Potential owners are 'tested' on the car's suitability for their households and whether the LEAF will adequately accommodate transport requirements. The Customer Journey program began in January with around 100 participants; some of which will not be taking delivery, admitted Darren Holland to motoring.com.au at the LEAF World without Petrol event.

At 1500 units per annum, the LEAF would outsell the petrol-engined Tiida. Some would argue that shouldn't be hard to do however Australia's stand (or lack thereof) on electric vehicle support has forced up the prices of the models for potential owners.

Mitsubishi charges $48,800 for the i-MiEV. Holden and Renault will not confirm exact pricing until the Volt and Fluence ZE's release later this year.

In the case of the Volt, Holden won't forecast numbers but the company is being realistic on sales numbers.

"We expect it [sales per annum] to be limited," admitted Holden spokeswoman Kate Lonsdale. "We're learning with this car... we're very encouraged by the number of registrations of interest [but] it's a niche model."

The Nissan LEAF will be launched next month. Visit motoring.com.au again for our review.

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