Mazda chief predicts soft landing for Aussie economy

It's a confusing time for analysts who predict the stock market's peaks and troughs. There are signs in our local new-car market that we're headed for recession and many media outlets are hinting at that already.

Mazda has reduced prices of the Mazda6 to sell more (more here) and Honda is concerned by its lower sales for this year (more here).

But things are actually looking good, says Mazda's local Managing Director, Doug Dickson -- not just for Mazda, but the entire Australian economy.

The importer has revised its sales forecast for 2008 up 2.5 per cent. By the end of this year, says Mazda, the company expects to have sold 82,000 cars, a 5.5 per cent increase on the 77,734 units sold for 2007.

If sales of the Mazda6 are languishing, the Mazda2 is more than picking up the slack.

"We're seeing unprecedented demand for the economical and exciting Mazda2 range," said Dickson. "With 9,248 sales to July, the Mazda2 is up 118 percent, exactly 5,000, on the same period last year."

Despite being a bit long in the tooth these days, the Mazda3 has still sold 20,297 units for the 2008 year, to date. So Mazda is not seeing too much doom and gloom in the market yet. The company reckons that the whole market is only half a per cent down on 2007 sales if you look at the June and July figures combined. Whilst many fleet buyers either spend the remainder of their financial year budget in June or start spending big in July, it's the private buyers that seem to be letting the market down over the last couple of months.

Dickson admits that there's a negative "retail sentiment" in the market at present and no one can foresee how the market (and the broader Australian economy) will travel in the future.

"There's a lack of confidence where it shouldn't be," says Dickson. "Private buyers are gun-shy at the moment, [but] the fundamentals are not the same here as in the US. It's just a matter of a few good [news items] getting out there [to turn the market around]."

Dickson cited our on-going resources boom, with China funding that as one element of the economy's strong standing. Also though, with interest rates as relatively high as they are at present -- a tactic by the Reserve Bank to hobble inflation -- Australia is a safe and secure place to invest your money if you also want decent returns.

"Interest rates are a blunt weapon and they [the federal government and the Reserve Bank] can't tell what's really going to happen," warns Dickson, but he also says that Mazda is "optimistic about the market".

"Any landing will be soft," he says, but also warns that we're still highly reliant on the commodities market for our economic resilience.

"If global conditions deteriorate any more," he says, "it may drag down the commodities market."

So even the Australian economy may not be immune, if the situation is that dire in other parts of the world.

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