Time weighs heavily on Nissan's Patrol

Nissan will commence production of the new Patrol SUV for Australia at its Nissan Shatai plant in Japan, just three months from now. But there's no news forthcoming about diesel variants of the new model.

Variously known as P61G or Y62, the new Patrol (pictured) was to replace the current Y61 ('GU') model outright, but won't field a diesel engine to combat the turbodiesel V8 in Toyota's LandCruiser — the traditional rival to the Patrol in the upper large SUV segment.

Speaking with motoring.com.au last week, Jeff Fisher, Nissan Australia's GM for Media Enquiries, echoed remarks made two and a half years ago by Dan Thompson, Nissan Australia's previous MD. Nissan's plan is to continue offering the current GU (Y61) model Patrol to those buyers wanting a serious offroad wagon with diesel power. In contrast the new Y62 Patrol will sell to those buyers ready to swallow the running costs and touring range in exchange for the petrol V8's refinement and performance.

Industry insiders have suggested in the past that the new Y62 Patrol would need at least 650 to 700Nm from a diesel engine. Dan Thompson had earlier indicated Nissan might strike a deal with Daimler for such an engine, but Mr Fisher was more circumspect last week. Even if a suitable engine could be sourced from Mercedes-Benz, the same issue applies, as the Nissan executive explained in some detail. It's all a question of Australia's relatively smaller sales volumes, which effectively rule out the development of a vehicle such as a diesel Y62 Patrol in right-hand drive. No other markets taking the new Patrol require such a combination.

"Look at this from a global perspective: We're selling a million cars here a year, but in that context a million cars is tiny... We're talking the United States, the European Union... the Middle East, which is bigger than our market already; we're talking two massive emerging markets — China and Russia. They're both petrol markets, they're both left-hand drive markets. Europe, with large cars is a diesel market, but it's a left-hand drive market once again. The Middle East is most certainly a petrol market, and the United States — left-hand drive and a petrol market as well.

"You've gotta go to where the markets are developing — and where the volume is."

When the new model goes on sale in Australia from January next year it will be powered by the same 5.6-litre petrol V8 that we previously sampled on a familiarisation drive at the Mount Cotton offroad facility in Queensland. The new model will be available in more than one level of trim.

"We haven't announced [it] yet, but we'll go for more than one grade," Mr Fisher confirmed. Presuming the entry-level Y62 is accordingly aimed at undermining the petrol LandCruiser — on the basis of price, specification or both — Nissan can expect a boost to the Patrol's sales from the introduction of the Y62 model. But it's a boost to a small component — petrol variants — of total Patrol sales. Diesels account for the majority of sales in this segment, and it might be argued that Toyota could afford to shed some LandCruiser sales when the 200 Series has outsold the Y61 Patrol in year-to-date VFACTS figures by a factor of over three to one. Toyota has collectively sold 6473 units of the LandCruiser for 2012, versus just 2015 units of the Y61/GU Patrol.

Even if the petrol Y62 can take sales away from petrol LandCruiser and/or grow the market segment, there remains the possibility that Y61 diesel sales will slump, simply because the Y62 in the showroom could show up how dated the Y61 design is. Jeff Fisher doesn't agree...

"Y61 has still got a lot going for it, in terms of value for money. It's great, all right, it's robust, it's strong; it's probably not swoopy in design... but a lot of people don't want that. A lot of people want value and something rugged — especially the offroad set — people who tow..."

It's hard to see the Y61 diesel's sales actually improving once the Y62 is introduced, and the only way to grow Nissan's diesel sales in this segment would be with an appropriately configured Y62 model.

"That's open for discussion," Mr Fisher responded. "With Y61, who knows? Why would Y62 [erode] sales of Y61? The Patrol brand is so strong in Australia — and especially to Nissan — that [Y62] would arguably bring more focus to the Patrol brand. Those people that don't need Y62 and the abilities it brings would still consider Y61..."

According to the Nissan spokesman, the two generations of Patrol will be built at the same plant, but not necessarily on the same production line. Furthermore, there's simply no end in sight to Y61 production, he explained, so the older generation of Patrol could soldier on for years yet.

"[Y62 is] being built at Nissan Shatai, which is a subordinate company to Nissan in Japan. On the same production line? I don't know. Obviously one's a frame chassis and the other one's a monocoque... [but it's the] same factory."

"There are no plans to drop Y61 for the foreseeable future."

What about changing emissions standards in Australia however? That might be the final nail in the coffin for Y61.

"That's the thing that will be a consideration going forward. For the moment it's okay," Mr Fisher said.

If a diesel Y62 isn't in the works for Australia, what about a hybrid then? In America SUVs the size of the Chevrolet Tahoe and GMC Yukon are available with hybrid drivetrains. Why not the Patrol for Australia?

Hypothetically, even if such a vehicle were developed, its landed cost in Australia might be prohibitive, Mr Fisher explained.

"A lot of these things are predicated on cost; it depends on where we can get Patrol — price-wise — and acceptance of that over the first year or two, as to where a hybrid would fit. And if there's a cost premium on that you've got to look at your market... Homologation for the Australian market still costs a lot of money...

"Those extra taxes that we wear here just kill that upper end of the market, so there's some soul searching done before those decisions are made..."

Ultimately though, even before Nissan Australia starts doing its sums, a hybrid Patrol would need a larger market — such as China or Russia — to put a hand up for it. And then the business case for a right-hand drive version must be viable, which means the engineering effort to swap the steering wheel from one side to the other must be affordable. So a hybrid Patrol may be just as far off in the future as a diesel — if not even further.

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