Toyota Australia facing a hybrid supply hurdle
Dealers warned of potential 20 per cent supply shortfall in 2026The News
Toyota Australia’s chances of continuing its mega sales run in 2026 will potentially be hindered by a significant hybrid supply shortfall.
The Key Details
- Hybrid battery production remains a choke point for Toyota
- Toyota Australia has told dealers supply could fall 20 per cent short of demand
- On current numbers that equates to up to 45,000 sales
- But Toyota Australia says the 20 per cent estimate is a “worst case scenario”
- Toyota will finish number one again in 2025 for 23rd consecutive year, but will not set a record
The Finer Details
During a recent trip to Japan, Toyota Australia warned dealers supply could fall 20 per cent short of anticipated demand in 2026.
On that basis, sales could dip below 200,000 for the first time since 2011.
While Toyota insists the 20 per cent shortfall is a worst-case scenario and dismissed a sub-200,000 result, a sales slide is still being forecast.
The brand sold a record 241,296 new vehicles in Australia in 2024 and appears set to fall just shy of that total in 2025, with sales expected to top-out between 235,000-240,000 – making it Australia’s top-selling brand for the 23rd consecutive year.
Toyota Australia marketing and sales chief Sean Hanley said the target for 2026 was in excess of 220,000.
“The truth is, we think we can do over 220,000 and we’re going to have to negotiate month by month to get cars,” he said.
“A 20 per cent shortfall would be worst case, but we always plan around worst case. I mean, this year we’re only planning at 220,000. We’re about to do close on 238,000, 239,000.”
As has been the case for some years with Toyota, hybrid batteries are a choke point for supply.
The brand’s Australian operation has steadily increased its reliance on hybrid powertrains across its passenger car and SUV line-ups, and sold more than 100,000 hybrids in Australia in 2024.
“Hybrid’s in huge demand for Toyota, not just in Australia, but globally. This is fact and reality,” Hanley said.
“We’re going to have to fight hard to get our share of hybrid. The good news is that we have strong customer demand.”
The Road Ahead
In 2026, Toyota Australia launches a new RAV4 medium SUV.
The vast majority of RAV4 sales will be hybrid, while a plug-in hybrid is being added at the top of the range for the first time.
Hanley, despite the current model being in run-out and the potential supply issues ahead, said RAV4 could still topple the Ford Ranger from the top of the sales ladder.
“I believe it would be a very good chance if we could get supply,” he said.
“It could be as soon as ’26. It could be, yeah, I believe it could be.”
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