Toyota predicts 25 per cent Australian market slump

New vehicle sales are crashing around the world due to the COVID-19 coronavirus, but Australia remains in a good position compared to many other countries and there are already signs of recovery appearing.

That's the word from the sales and marketing boss of Australia's top-selling car brand, who predicts a market slump of between 25 and 30 per cent in 2020 and a return in confidence by mid-2021.

"We think the market will sit somewhere between 750,000 and 800,000 this year – somewhere in that range," Sean Hanley told carsales.

In 2019 just over one million (1,062,867) new vehicles were sold Down Under and while sales will be much lower in 2020, Australia appears to be weathering the COVID-19 storm better than some countries.

"It's still a decline on the million mark but it's not as harsh as some other markets are experiencing," said Hanley.

While the Australian market was down about 48 per cent last month, no new vehicles were sold in India and the UK market plunged by 97 per cent, and some European countries including Spain and Italy saw sales drop by two thirds in the last couple of months.

To May this year, Aussie figures are down by around 21 per cent and Hanley said this market "…will fare pretty well in terms of overall market impact…" and was already showing positive signs.

"We're seeing some green shoots in the market already as different states open up and ease restrictions. We are seeing some positive trends," he said, without being specific.

Hanley's appraisal of the local market lines up with the global sales forecast of his task masters in Tokyo, where Toyota Motor Corporation announced its 2019-2020 financial results this week.

Globally, Toyota sold almost nine million (8,958,423) vehicles last financial year (to March 2020), representing a sales dip of just 0.002 per cent or 18,372 units.

But the Japanese giant is forecasting a 2020-2021 sales drop of around 22 per cent or about two million vehicles.

The global pandemic will also see some new vehicle launches delayed, with the upcoming Toyota HiLux facelift and new Yaris small car already affected.

"Importantly for us is that we adjusted our plans and our production plants to minimise financial risk to both our own company and the dealer network," said Hanley.

Toyota's chief financial officer, Kenta Kon, said COVID-19 will make future predictions challenging.

"It is difficult to foresee the future and the situation," said Kon, who nevertheless predicted that the global auto market would fully recover by late 2021 – six months after Hanley’s predicted rebound in Australia.

"We're monitoring literally by the week at the moment and trying to adjust our forecasts accordingly," said Hanley.

"But at the moment our recovery in terms of our country is looking very positive, so therefore our market predictions are mirroring that ramp up.

"Realistically, I think [it will be] July next year until we see a genuine upturn in the market. When I say genuine upturn, I mean like what we used to have.

"I think over the next 12 months we'll see a slow but steady ramp up."