Toyota says its sales won’t shrink, unlike Mazda

Toyota Australia has flatly rejected the idea its sales will settle permanently lower, as legacy rivals such as Mazda brace for smaller volumes in a market crowded with new Chinese brands.

Asked whether Toyota saw the same trend, Toyota Australia Vice President of Sales, Marketing and Franchise Operations John Pappas said he doesn’t anticipate sales to drop off 

“No. We don’t plan to be declining. We plan to continue to grow,” he told carsales.

The bullish sentiment from Pappas is at odds with the scoreboard at present.

September 2026 VFACTS data shows Toyota is down 15.9 per cent year-to-date at 152,944 sales, almost exactly in step with Mazda, which is down 16.2 per cent to 58,865.

Pappas says the problem isn’t demand but supply, with a record fourth quarter on the way.

But the bigger picture is a market that’s been carved into ever-smaller slices.

“It’s incredible that Australia now nearly has around 70 brands in a market that’s around 1.2 million cars a year,” said the Toyota boss.

“In the past five years the number of brands sold in Australia has grown significantly, while the total market sales has only increased in that period by about 200,000. So that’s a very competitive market.”

He’s not wrong. Total sales are dead flat this year at 914,312, just 127 units shy of the same point in 2025.

Yet BYD has more than doubled to 76,614 sales (+102%), Chery is up 58.2% to 38,022, Geely has rocketed 639.2% to 23,632 and Zeekr has gone from 730 sales to 12,120. Chinese car brands are clearly firing.

Pappas also pointed to a shift in what buyers want, driven partly by fuel prices.

“This year, we have also seen the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine result in ever-shifting oil prices, adding to the cost-of-living pressures for Australian consumers, and this has in part also resulted in rapid acceleration in consumer demand for electrified vehicles,” he said.

Those sales have to come from somewhere.

Mitsubishi is down 30.2%, Subaru 29.3% and Nissan 33.3%.

Isolating market share, and Toyota has slipped from 19.9% to 16.7%.

Still, Pappas points to full order banks and fresh orders running strong.

“Our order banks are still very, very healthy and our order intake, fresh order intake, still going very, very strong. So it’s not really an issue of demand,” he said.

Toyota is betting on product to grow, with a fourth RAV4 PHEV variant, the electric C-HR mid next year and a hydrogen HiLux all on the way, plus a goal of 30% zero- and low-emission sales by 2030.

It will also finish 2026 as Australia’s number one brand for the 31st year running.

But with 70-odd brands chasing roughly the same number of buyers, growing from here might take more than a full order book.

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