VF Commodore fast-tracked?

Recent news out of Korea that GM's design centre at Incheon will double in size hints at a few different scenarios for GM in the Asia/Pacific region, including Holden.

The facility, responsible for the Miray concept car (pictured), has announced that new modelling studios, display spaces and creative work areas will double the size of the facility. Work will be completed by next year, and the centre will then house 200 employees working on exterior and interior styling for the corporation's global vehicle programs. To date, the Korean facility has been the brains behind the Cruze, Barina and Barina Spark. But it's the centre's Miray design study that has been the talk of major international motor shows during the past 12 months.

GM Korea is "one of seven fully integrated design, engineering and manufacturing operations within" the worldwide GM operation. Holden is another; so motoring.com.au asked Holden's Senior Product Communications Manager, Kate Lonsdale, in what way this might affect the Aussie GM brand.

"I think that they're mutually exclusive," she said about the responsibilities of the design centres in South Korea and Port Melbourne. "[There is] no direct link or impact on Holden here."

But the news comes at a time when Holden is suspected of bringing forward the introduction of the VF Commodore replacement for the current VE model. With a prominent Chevrolet dealer in the US claiming to have driven the car already, and the NASCAR vehicle being developed from the Chevy SS — itself a VF Commodore underneath — in time for the opening round of the 2013 season, it looks like the VF model will be here sooner rather than later.

And another clue to the timing is the model lifespan of the current VE. Introduced in 2006, it will be approaching seven years old around August of next year. If seven years is the new standard lifespan for a locally-produced Holden, then the VF will be timed to run through to 2020. Yet Holden MD Mike Devereux, announcing government co-investment worth $275 million, specifically mentioned that Holden's Elizabeth plant would be building "two new Australian-made cars... underpinned by global architectures".

Reading between the lines, the current Zeta platform the VE and VF Commodores could not be considered a 'global' platform as such. Sure, it's the fundament of the Canadian-built Camaro and it's sold in different markets throughout the world as Commodore or Caprice, but it's much more likely neither of the two global platforms to which Devereux refers will have been developed in Australia when they go into production.

What are the odds Holden will produce THREE model lines at Elizabeth? The two new 'global' models and Commodore beyond 2020? While that does happen overseas, it's unprecedented in Australia.

Based on all that, the Commodore, in VF form, must presumably be supplanted by a new global car before the end of this decade. If the VF model is released late this year or early next year, it will run around six years — long enough to amortise design costs in the right circumstances — and finish production in time for its successor to go into production at Elizabeth before "the end of the decade".

Adding fuel to the fire, Ms Lonsdale advised that the VF Commodore is on track for production.

"Commodore's pretty much in the bag now," Ms Lonsdale said when questioned about the engineering side of the new car project. VF, which is also known as 'Model Year 14', has been "designed and engineered here in Australia," as opposed to any involvement from Korea.

Yet the expansion of the Korean design centre looks like baby steps towards ramping up the Korean arm's position in the GM world. Asia (China in particular) is an increasingly important market for GM, as it is for other multinationals. Korea is in the same time zone as Australia and there has already been some cross-pollination between Australia and Korea on the development of certain vehicles.

"We work with them on lots of programs; Cruze was a good example," said Ms Lonsdale. "We led the Cruze hatch design, but obviously they were the home room for Cruze. We're all part of the GM world — and particularly now when we produce these global products. We all work very closely."

Perhaps the Cruze hatch is a paradigm for future cooperation between Port Melbourne and Incheon.

Here's a scenario to consider: VF Commodore arrives in the local market early next year and sells in the US, the Middle East and NZ as the current VE does. It is replaced after six years by a new model, possibly a front-driver based on a stretched Malibu platform (or whatever passes for that in six years' time). That car could be developed as a 'big picture' project in Korea, with Holden tweaking the body, the styling and the packaging for Australia and other Holden markets. With Holden engineers recently claiming through their union that development work on the next generation Commodore would head overseas, Korea seems the likeliest prospect.

Continuing the hypothesis, the stretched Malibu has serious sales potential as a Buick in China, where they love their long wheelbases and plentiful rear-seat accommodation. Car of the Future regs in V8 supercars accommodate a front-drive 'Commodore' in rear-driven race form, just as is happening with the Nissan Altima. The new Holden goes into production prior to 2020 and takes advantage of government co-investment, as outlined by Mike Devereux.

Such a scenario might seem far-fetched, but it's not significantly removed from Toyota's current manufacturing operations — and might also be a pattern for Ford if the indigenous Falcon is dropped, to be replaced by a front-drive model on a stretched Mondeo platform.

Read the latest news and reviews on your mobile, iPhone or PDA at carsales' mobile site...