GM Holden says it will always have a V8 performance model in its range, but refuses to confirm the new Chevrolet Camaro will pick up where the Commodore SS leaves off in 2017.
"It wouldn't be a Holden portfolio without a V8 sports car," said GM Executive Director of Sales, Peter Keley, reiterating comments made at the Detroit motor show by GM International chief Stefan Jacoby, who promised Holden will release a new global V8 sports car within a few years.
"We've already made that announcement – there's no new announcement on that and there's been lots conjecture as to what it will be, but Holden will always have a V8 sports car – that's what the Holden brand has had for many decades and will have into the future. It's part of our heritage."
Keley made the remarks at this week's launch of the Holden Astra GTC, Astra VXR and Cascada, which Holden describes as the first troops of a "European invasion" that will eventually account for more than a third of its model range.
However, Holden insists the V8 sports car promise is not a pre-emptive strike to stop V8 buyers, who currently account for 33 per cent of Commodore customers, defecting to the new Ford Mustang due here from December.
"We're not building our strategy based on what anybody else is doing," said GM Holden Director of Communications Sean Poppitt. "We're taking the long-term view. Of course we've got to react to the market and have tactical strategies, but we're not doing what we're doing based on what this guy or that guy is doing."
Chevrolet will reveal its next-generation Camaro – currently General Motors' only V8-powered model apart from the Corvette and Cadillacs – in Detroit on May 16, before the new coupe goes on sale in the US in October.
The mystery V8 sports car Holden has promised in the past is likely to be the Camaro, unless GM revives a plan to replace the Commodore-based Chevrolet SS for the US market with an Alpha-platform-based sedan, which would essentially be a four-door Camaro sharing the same platform.
Switching the current generation's Australian-designed Zeta platform, which also underpins Holden's Commodore, for the same rear-drive Alpha platform seen under the Cadillac ATS and new CTS, it's likely to be powered by turbo-four, V6 and V8 petrol engines.
Also like Ford's Mustang, Chevy's smaller, lighter, quicker and more efficient new large coupe is expected to be sold globally, but GM is yet to confirm if it will be produced in right-hand drive. However, Holden's sales boss indicated the Australian brand's secret sports model will be a Mustang rival.
"Will we lose buyers to Mustang? Ford will have their Mustang and it'll bring some customers, but when we have ours there'll still be plenty of buyers to go round," he said.
Keley again pledged Holden's commitment to releasing 24 new products (new or additional models, or major facelifts) and 36 new powertrain combinations by 2020, but he would not provide timing for the V8.
"We've got a product portfolio that we're rolling out over the next five years, so I'm not committing to what year that [V8] will be, but it's within those five years. So at the right time we'll talk about that vehicle. All we're saying is it's a V8 sports car," he said.
Holden says it will stockpile Commodores for sale into 2018, but if it is to continue to offer a V8 performance model beyond the demise of the Australian-made Commodore in 2017, the new model will need to be launched within three years and within a year of the Mustang.
Either way, Holden says it will have the products to keep current Commodore buyers happy after its Adelaide factory closes and the homegrown model is replaced by an imported vehicle most likely to be based on Opel's next-generation Insignia.
"We'll have many products to keep them in the brand," said Keley. "Those buyers are looking for a number of different things. They're looking for value, space, versatility, performance, technology. We'll have a number of different cars that will appeal to those buyers.
"Now depending on what their first criteria is we'll have a vehicle for them to go into. They're not a homogeneous group of buyers.
"But that's part of our challenge as a brand. We have a very vocal following who don't want the world to change at all, but the world is changing. We've done clinics around what the future Commodore will be and we're very secure in where we're going with that.
"What we're trying to do is say we'll have a range of vehicles that will meet the needs of the Australian consumer and live up to the Holden brand."
Keley, who was previously Holden's chief product planner, said the company spent the six months following the December 2013 announcement that it will cease manufacturing cherry-picking models from around the GM world, including North America, Europe and Korea.
"We didn't have a plan B," he said. "We were purely fixated on trying to locally manufacture in Australia two world-class platforms. That didn't eventuate, so from that point we then started to plan the future product portfolio that Holden needs to win both in Australia and New Zealand.
"We spent about six months going through the process. We had a couple of fantastic assets. First we really do believe we know the Australian consumer better than any other car company in Australia. Why? Because we've spent many, many years building unique cars to specifically meet the needs of the Australian motorist.
"So we took that knowledge and then we also had a look at GM's global product portfolio and we worked with the leadership of GM in the engineering home rooms to not only take the right products for Australia, but ensure they had the right configurations, the right powetrains for the Australian market.
"Out of that came a portfolio of 24 new vehicles that we'll roll out over the next five years and 36 new powertrains that will be rolled over in the same timeframe."
Keley provided more details on those models, but Astra GTC, Astra VXR and Cascada will be followed by the Insignia VXR next month, a facelifted Captiva in coming months and the all-new Barina Spark early next year.
Keley said he has driven the new Spark at both Holden's Lang Lang proving ground and around Melbourne and said it will be a ground-breaking car because it is the first of a range of cars to ride on the new GM platform dubbed M2 XX.
"The new Spark will be a fantastic car for Holden and what it will represent is more than just incremental sales in that segment. It means two things: first it's the first product from General Motors' all-new architectures that will be coming to the Australian and New Zealand markets. I personally think it really will change peoples' thoughts around what a Spark is.
"Secondly, it also will demonstrate what Holden's engineering team can bring to these new world architectures in terms of handling, ride comfort and steering that suits the Australian market and represents the Holden brand the way it should be."
SUVs will be the other major growth area for Holden, which currently offers four, but has promised to add at least one more – almost certainly a new large SUV Opel has promised by the end of this decade.
"Of course our future product strategy also needs to encompass SUVs," said Keley.
"The Australian car market is up 4.2 per cent this year so far and SUVs are up over 15 per cent, so naturally Holden will be replacing all of its current SUVs, but we'll be adding additional SUV models to really leverage Holden's position in that segment and gain volume and market share growth.
"General Motors has a lot of SUVs being built in both North America and Europe. We've looked at the whole range and picked the ones that best suit the Australian consumer."
As part of its Euro-sourcing strategy, Holden could also introduce the Opel Mokka and Zafira, both of which were on the verge of local release when GM axed the Opel brand Down Under in 2013.
Opel also has the Corsa light-car and commercials like the Combo and Movano, and is due to reveal its next-generation Astra next year. The new Astra hatch could be sold here alongside the new (imported) Cruze sedan post-2017.
Holden won't import the second-generation Volt because it won't be made in RHD, but is considering the smaller Chevy Bolt EV, while the new Malibu is an unlikely starter because it's likely to be fundamentally similar to the first imported Commodore.
Indeed, Holden says this week's first three Opel-sourced models mark the beginning of a new strategy to leverage Australians' appetite for German-branded vehicles.
"In understanding the Australian consumer, one of the things we clearly understood was the opportunity around European sourced vehicles, so about 30 per cent of our future product portfolio will come from Europe," said Keley.
"Today, this is merely what I call an entree to the European models to come. European products do have a particular cachet, especially German brands.
"Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz have all grown share, so it makes sense for Holden to leverage Opel products. Holden's and Opel's DNA is very close in terms of performance, quality, style and value."
Holden won't reveal sales targets for its first three Euro models, but admits the two small two-doors and mid-size convertible won't be big sellers.
"The Astra GTC, Astra VXR and Cascada go far beyond the volume they represent; they're a new beginning at a critical period in the evolution of Holden," said Poppitt. "We plan to build a future that honours the past."
Keley also conceded the first Holden-branded Opels will very much be niche halo models, but denied the Astras in particular will steal sales from locally-built Cruze SRi because they are two-door models.
"It's about creating excitement in the Holden show and bringing new customers to the brand – that's their job."
Keley confirmed that no Cadillac models are included in the 24 models Holden has committed to launching in the next five years.