All BMWs hybrid by 2025

Having canned the last of its iconic naturally-aspirated engines and gone all-turbo in 2015, BMW now plans to at least mildly hybridise every engine in its line-up by 2025.

The move was confirmed at the Paris motor show last week by BMW’s global development chief Klaus Frohlich.

Frohlich also revealed BMW remains unconvinced that petrol and diesel powertrains will be swept aside by electric vehicles any time soon, predicting the internal combustion engine would still comprise 85 per cent of the company’s line-up in 2030.

BMW will introduce its first 48-volt mild-hybrid in 2019 using a basic belt-driven alternator that will generate about 8-10kW of extra power and six to 10 per cent in fuel savings.

But the big returns will come “beyond 2022” when the company’s second-generation 48-volt system, including an integrated electric motor in the transmission, starts rolling out in BMW’s turbo-petrol and diesel line-up of internal combustion engines.

That system will generate more than 20kW and fuel savings of up to 15 per cent, Frohlich estimated.

“Of course, because they have the transmission, I can cut of the engine with a clutch or something like that so that you can regenerate much more,” he enthused about the second-generation system.

A 48-volt mild-hybrid strategy is already being deployed by BMW rivals Mercedes-Benz  and Audi, but neither has made the commitment to total range coverage by a certain date.

Mercedes-Benz has come closest, promising at least one electrified alternative in each model series by 2022.

Mild-hybrid petrol and diesel drivetrains are the entry-level to BMW’s future powertrain pyramid, which then steps up to plug-in hybrids and battery-electric vehicles. Fuel-cell electric vehicles are also under study in partnership with Toyota.

BMW aims to have 25 electrified vehicles in the market by 2025, with 12 of them BEVs. It does not include mild-hybrids in that count.

By 2030 Frohlich says BMW’s “optimistic estimate” is that 15 per cent of its range will comprise BEVs, 15 per cent plug-ins and 70 per cent mild-hybrids. That means 85 per cent of the range will still retain internal combustion engines.

“If you look at the CO2 regulations worldwide there is an ambition to have a high number of battery electric vehicles.

“The only problem is we do not find customers who want to drive an electric vehicle and face all the constraints that come with that.

“So I am investing in combustion engines plus 48-volt and especially for Europe – less so for Australia -- will also work heavily on the plug-in hybrids, which will have a range up to 100km. The new X5 already has 80km.”

One key reason battery electric vehicles won’t accelerate quickly in popularity is cost. Asked if they would ever match conventional combustion-engined cars on price without subsidies, Frohlich was adamant.

“No, Never, never. It’s very simple,” he said.

“If you read in the press that if you are at full scale, one kW/h [of battery capacity] will cost you between 100 and 150 Euros ($170 to $250). This means that cars with 90 to 100kW/h, the cell cost only will be 10,000 to 15,000 Euros ($17,000 to $25,000).

“You can produce whole [conventional] cars only with the cost of the [EV] battery.”

Frohlich also made the point that the price of cobalt, a rare-earth mineral required for lithium-ion batteries, would only go up as demand increased.

“That is why we have this long-term project for lower-priced cobalt in 2030,” he said, referring to a 10-year deal for cobalt -- and lithium -- supply struck by BMW earlier this year. “We are the only ones who are doing this.

“So, it’s a nightmare that an electric vehicle will cost the same as a combustion-engined car.”

Frohlich also described the EV discussion as “a bit irrational”.

“Perhaps in the eastern region of China; Beijing, Shanghai, Hong Kong … they might be 100 per cent electric.

“But the world; Russia, Australia, USA, big portions of Europe, they will have combustion engines for a very long time.”