Ford expects 2016 growth

Has Ford Australia hit the bottom of the worst sales slump in its modern history?

For the first time since 2012, the blue oval has recorded three consecutive months of year-on-year sales growth according to VFACTS official registration figures.

While the champagne corks aren’t popping in the company’s new Richmond headquarters as a result, company president Graeme Whickman is cautiously predicting an overall sales growth in 2016, reversing a downward trend that has been continuous since 2004.

“I would say I would expect for us by dint of all the things we have done and our products to have a good chance to do better year on year,” Whickman told motoring.com.au.

“That’s about as conclusive as I would get.

“I don’t care to have the target on my back, I don’t care to read the headlines that we predict XYZ.

“To me it comes across as arrogant and I don’t want to come across that way. I want to come across as a bit more of a humble brand and earn our stripes.”

Ford’s three consecutive months of year-on-year growth came in November and December 2015 and in January 2016.

The figures are listed at the bottom of this story.

While they show a glimmer of hope, they also demonstrate just how dire Ford’s sales position has become compared to its halcyon days. After all, the 5504 registrations recorded in January would have been seen as a disaster just a few years ago, rather than the win it is today.

In January 2004, Ford registered 8154 vehicles and went on that year to finish third in the market with 135,172 sales and claim a 14.2 per cent share.

Eleven years of downwards ales later, the blue oval ended 2015 with 70,454 registrations, sixth on the sales ladder and with a 6.1 per cent market share. It was an 11.6 per cent fall from 2014 and its poorest result since 1967.

The 2015 results also show how dependant on Ranger ute the company has become.

There were 29,185 examples of the locally-developed global model sold in 2015. It was one of three models along with the EcoSport small SUV and Transit commercial that grew registered year-on-year.

Meanwhile the locally-built Falcon sedan and ute, ageing Fiesta, recently updated Focus and Kuga, the new-generation Mondeo and locally-built Territory all decreased in registrations.

New arrivals, the Everest SUV and hotly anticipated Mustang sports car provided some sales impetus late in the year.

In January 2016 the Ranger, Everest and Mustang continued to be cornerstones. Ranger 4x4 outsold the Toyota HiLux to be number one in segment, the Everest outsold the cheaper Toyota Fortuner (although the Toyota Prado dominated body on frame SUV as per usual) while Mustang led sports under $80K with 389 registrations.

The highly-rated Focus suffered the biggest fall-off in 2015, with registrations falling 53 per cent from 15,116 to 7112. Its sales were also off 57.1 per cent January 2016 compared to January 2015.

Whickman attributed the plunge to an intentional departure from the rental market, a rise in entry price and a shortfall in run-out stock of the pre-upgrade model.

Despite the collapse in sales of a mode that is rated as one of the best drives in Australia’s most popular new vehicle segment, he defended the strategy.

“We knew that the numbers were going to be down year on year in that space,” he revealed.

“At the end of the day we have also got to run a sustainable company and we have to make sure we sell vehicles in a way that is responsible to our shareholders.

“And it’s a tough market in the D and C segment. We were selling Focuses at $18,990 in 2014 and we moved that price to a different positon and we were selling from around $22K in 2015.”

As he has consistently done since he joined Ford Australia as marketing director in 2013 and since he replaced Bob Graziano as president last year, Whickman has played down the importance of VFACTS figures in measuring the success of the ‘transformation’ Ford Australia is going through, which includes the October shutdown of its Campbell and Geelong locally assembly plants.

“You see certain measures of success and those are not all the measures we apply,” he said.

The company has stressed its customer experience initiatives as well as an expanded and updated model range - with 20 new or upgraded model arrivals planned between the end of 2014 and 2020 - as keys to its future performance.

“I do think we will improve, but we have to earn that right,” Whickman said. “That is what we have been trying to do, particularly with consumer experience; having our dealerships in a more modern environment, having our dealers (provide) a more welcoming and better sales and service outcome.

“And as we have been concentrating there, we have been putting more vehicles in, so I would hope that we end up with a better end result. But the proof will be in the pudding.”

Ford registrations
Jan 2016 v Jan 2015 5504 v 5357
Dec 2015 v Dec 2014 6290 v 5936
Nov 2015 v Nov 2014 6332 v 5843

Dec 2012 v Dec 2011 7608 v 6724
Nov 2012 v Nov 2011 8529 v 8103
Oct 2012 v Oct 2011 8379 v 6921