Kingswood country or Toyota territory?

Fair Dinkum mate, this big brown land is dry as dust, so who wants a drive in the country? Who can afford to? No-one, if the sales figures are any guide.

More hands went to wallets last month to lay down dough on Toyota's hardy perennial, the Corolla, than our home-grown Falcon, Commodore, 380 or Territory… The big cars for the Big Country.

It's no flash in the pan. So far this year more shiny Corollas have been parked with pride on the front lawn than Falcons.

It’s not just the cheesy ads driving Bruce and Sheila to Toyota dealers, cash in hand, up for a dose of  "Oh what a feeling". Fuel misers are the order of the day: light car sales are booming; small cars are close to out-selling traditional family cars two to one. The biggest island on earth is rapidly turning into a small car nation.

Not surprising when you think about it. We all live in cities: big ones -- with increasingly clogged roads and  hard-to-find parking. Our nuclear families are shrinking. Remember the family Ford pointed at the Laser? 2.4 kids? Not so fast in the 21st century. Have you seen the size of private school fees?

And, the small matter of the price of a pint of unleaded? $1.40 a litre? Fair go, we'll be buying it by the pint soon.

Don't look now, but there's a big burp coming. A belch that could well knock the wind out of many a sail… (Or should that read: sale?) The price of fuel goes up. The domestic motorist yelps, but the business motorist, who pays not for his fuel from his own Visa card, shrugs the slug as another input cost of doing business.

As ever, the end-user pays. Goods increase in price at the factory door, and on the supermarket shelves. The higher price of fuel is factored into retail prices across the board.

Yep, that's the belch that follows the intake of fuel at the higher price. Delayed a while, but due any day. Just ask the Reserve Bank.

But there's more belching and bellyaching to come. Might be worth investing in Mylanta shares. Just wait till Bruce and Sheila go shopping for their next car. That's the automotive belch.

Businesses will always buy new cars. Fleets buy big Aussie sixes, because, well, they always have, because they can get them cheap, run them for a tax-efficient period and then off-load them at a good price. Total cost to the business, if bought and sold right: very little.

In the old days (ie: up to last year), Bruce and Sheila hit the yards, spotted the two-year-old Falcon (warranty still intact) and Bob's your uncle, the family's travelling in style and comfort. Sure, it'll drink a little more than a four-pot, but hey, feel that torque.

Now… Well not so fast… Businesses will still want to buy Falcons and Commodores cheaply up-front and Ford and Holden will want to sell them on huge numbers to feed the factories. But what happens when these cars come off fleet? Will Bruce and Sheila fancy a big six with real world fuel economy substantially worse than a four-cylinder small or medium car? Maybe not when fuel's 40 per cent dearer than the last time they went shopping for a car.

That's the automotive belch.

That's also the worry right now for car makers, fleet buyers, and business users across Australia. If Bruce and Sheila defect to new Corollas for family transport, the residual values of the Falcon, Commodore and 380 are threatened. And with it car making in Australia…

In the past Bruce and Sheila might have convinced themselves they needed a big six, but faced with current and rising fuel costs reality is hitting hard.

Here's some more reality. Most Aussies don't drive an Aussie-made car.

Rear-wheel drive? When was the last time Bruce or Sheila asked or cared which end does the driving? Bet ya boots today they'll be asking how far it'll go on a tankful, not what she's good for on the quarter mile.

That's why Toyota is smiling like a cayman. And why according to just released July VFACTs new vehicle sales figures (see more here ) Big T's lead over Holden is bigger than Mitsubishi’s total sales for the year.

Want to know how cataclysmic this state of affairs is? Toyota's appeal to car buyers is not led by shiny new product. Corolla is almost ready for replacement and there's only been one new volume-selling model join the ranks recently: Yaris -- new nameplate and all.

The well-thumbed guidebook to retail success said sales are driven by new mass-market motors. Not now. Holden's new Viva, Barina and Astra haven't stemmed the Toyota tide, despite their relatively frugal four-cylinder engines. Neither has Focus for Ford, or 380 for Mitsubishi or Tiida for Nissan.

New 'old' (read: not new models) Toyotas are clogging suburban driveways in bigger numbers than the Oval, Lion and Diamond brothers because in times of uncertainty, rock solid reliability, reputation and reality rule.

Toyota is king of the consumer offer. It's a sales proposition to Bruce and Sheila is simple to comprehend. No fuss to buy, own or sell on. Cheap to run. Reliable. And if you don't believe the advertising, well, ask your neighbour.

If Bruce and Sheila do find themselves with 2.4 kids, do you think they'll be shopping for a 3.6-litre V6, 100kg-heavier Commodore or a four-cylinder 2.4-litre Camry as the next family hold-all? The new Camry even looks like a Falcadore. Game over.