EV goalpost moving?

Mercedes-Benz and Volvo remain committed to electrification of their respective model line-ups but will not speculate on EV fleet numbers going forward.
 
Speaking at this week's Geneva Motor Show, Mercedes-Benz R&D boss and board member Dr Thomas Weber and Volvo's Vice President Product Strategy and Vehicle Line Management Lex Kerssemakers both sidestepped questions regarding projections for future EV volumes, citing government regulation and infrastructure development, not car makers' targets, as the main factors in determining EV volumes.
 
Kerssemakers joked he has now stopped giving EV estimates.
 
"I've stopped giving numbers. If you look at the analysts, they say, "Probably within 10 or 20 per cent in 2012." [But] I have no clue. If one government in a big country is going to say, "You know what, no combustion driven engine cars in our city anymore." [Then] it can change rapidly," he told motoring.com.au.
 
"It will be a substantial part. But how much? No idea," the forthright Volvo exec stated.
 
Benz's Weber was similar, though a touch more politik in his response to questions regarding EV fleet projections.
 
"It’s hard to predict and you can name every number. In Germany, based on intensive discussion with all the scientists, we came up with a fleet size of one million vehicles in 2020 -- which is about 3-4 per cent market share. That shows how long the wait [for EV volume] will be..."
 
Weber described Germany's one million EVs by 2020 a "political target"
 
"As an engineering 'society' all the competitors, suppliers and so on, are committed to this political target... [But] we feel that’s a stretch target.
 
"It’s not easy to achieve but... it will not come for free -- we have to invest in technology, in research programs, in infrastructure programs and if a country is committed they will go in such a direction. If the country is a country doing nothing [then] I think there will be a small fleet for politicians, for demonstration, but the [paying] customer they will not go in such a direction..."
 
"We are preparing ourselves to push also the global development [of EVs]. We see huge activities in the [United] States, pushed by the government; we see huge activities in China, where we have launched our project with BYD.
 
"Europe, of course is, more than Germany; that’s the reason we have joined forces with Renault. They also have aggressive EV program in place...
 
"I think around the globe there are programs in place to push in such a direction but be careful it will take time; it’s an expensive journey but there is no alternative," Weber stated.
 
Volvo already has a limited production electric version of the C30 with customers in Europe. However, like Mercedes, it says it sees hybrids, especially plug-in hybrids, as playing a more significant part in its future line ups.
 
"We see plug-in hybrid as a part of our offer, as a part of our [EV] concept... [But] We open up everything. We have now plug-in hybrids. We have all sort of other hybrid technologies. We are trying to find a combination between the different concepts, which is sustainable financially," Kerssemakers stated.
 
That plug-in technology will remain in larger cars -- Volvo will, for example, launch a V60 diesel hybrid in Europe later this year. Kerssemakers says mass market C-segment (new V40 and A-Class-sized) cars will not support the cost of plug-in technology -- around a Euro15,000 premium currently in case of V60.
 
"Plug-in [in C-segment]? Short term, I don’t think so. A pure electrical car in lower quantities? Yes. But then you need to have different business models where you knead it out and you find solutions to make it affordable..."

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